有机硅、己内酰胺协同性确立，或迎景气上行，反内卷加速化工拐点来临

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The synergy between silicone and caprolactam has been established, indicating a potential upturn in the industry, with a shift away from internal competition accelerating the chemical sector's turning point [3]. - The report highlights a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery and tariff adjustments, with Brent crude oil expected to remain in the range of $55-70 per barrel [3][4]. - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Xingfa Group, Luxi Chemical, Dongyue Silicon Materials, and Xin'an Chemical for silicone, and Luxi Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Polyone for caprolactam [3]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic judgment indicates that oil supply growth is slowing due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with a global economic improvement [3][4]. - The report notes that coal prices are expected to stabilize in the long term, and natural gas costs may decrease as the U.S. accelerates its export facility construction [3]. Investment Analysis - The report recommends a diversified investment approach across four chains: textile and apparel, agricultural chemicals, export-related chemicals, and sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies [3]. - Specific companies to watch include: - Textile and Apparel: Luxi Chemical, Tongkun Co., Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical - Agricultural Chemicals: Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy, Yuntianhua - Export-related Chemicals: Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Wanhu Chemical - Anti-involution sectors: Biyuan Chemical, Xuefeng Technology [3]. Key Material Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor materials, panel materials, and lithium battery materials [3].