烧碱：震荡偏弱，PVC：低位震荡

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for caustic soda is "shockingly weak" [1]. - The investment rating for PVC is "low - level shock" [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report Caustic Soda - High production and high inventory patterns continue, and the market keeps shorting chlor - alkali profits. The impact of alumina's production increase and reduction expectations on caustic soda can basically offset each other. Non - aluminum downstream support is limited, and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure. Long - term alumina production cuts will cause negative feedback in the industry chain [5]. - The valuation of caustic soda is suppressed by alumina production cut expectations. With limited cost support and no production cuts by manufacturers, it's difficult for caustic soda to rebound significantly [5]. PVC - The high - production and high - inventory structure is hard to change in the short term. Although the futures price has reached a historical low and some devices may reduce production, the high - start and weak - demand pattern persists before the 03 contract. The supply - side reduction in the maintenance peak season next year can be expected [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoint Overview Caustic Soda - Supply: The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 84.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. The load in North and Northeast China has increased, while that in East, Central, and Southwest China has decreased due to device maintenance and production cuts [5]. - Demand: The alumina industry is likely to reduce production, and non - aluminum demand is in the off - season. Export orders are few, and the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is still weak [5]. - Strategy: Unilateral: Valuation is suppressed, and high - production pressure persists in winter. Inter - period: 1 - 5 reverse spread. Inter - variety: None [5]. PVC - Supply: The high - production structure is hard to change in the short term. The 2026 spring and summer maintenance may be stronger than this year [7]. - Demand: In 2025, the PVC export market faces greater competition, and domestic demand related to real estate is weak [7]. - Strategy: Unilateral: Low - level shock, stop losses on short positions, with the upper pressure on the 01 contract at 4,600 and the lower support at 4,400. Inter - period: 1 - 5 reverse spread. Inter - variety: None [7]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The basis of caustic soda 01 is strong, while the 1 - 5 month spread is weak [10]. - The export market still has support but is undergoing structural adjustment. The cumulative export volume of liquid caustic soda from January to September is 2.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.29%. It's expected to increase by at least 30% year - on - year in 2025, exceeding 4 million tons [14][18]. - The FOB price in Northeast Asia is continuously falling, currently at $380 per dry ton [19]. - The regional arbitrage space between Shandong and Guangdong is decreasing, and the price difference between flake and liquid caustic soda is declining. The price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is lower than the evaporation cost, suppressing the spot market [25][31]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - The market structure shows rising production and inventory, being weak. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises is 84.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. The factory inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises is 427,600 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.32% and a year - on - year increase of 80.65% [37][38][40]. - Maintenance will significantly decrease after November. In 2025 and 2026, caustic soda production capacity will continue to be put into operation, with a growth rate of over 3% [43][45]. - In November, the large - scale industrial electricity price in Shandong has increased, raising caustic soda costs. Liquid chlorine has not provided significant subsidies, so the cost support for caustic soda is limited [46][50]. - Among the chlorine - consuming downstream industries, the production and profit of propylene oxide have recovered, the production of epichlorohydrin has recovered while the profit has declined, and the production of dichloromethane and chloroform has declined while the profit has recovered [53][57][62]. 3.4 Caustic Soda Demand - In 2025, the alumina production capacity has expanded significantly, with an expected new capacity of 9.5 million tons. In 2026, the new production capacity in the first quarter is relatively concentrated, with an expected annual increase of 13.9 million tons [66][68]. - Alumina's production, inventory, and profit are showing a downward trend, and there is an expectation of production cuts. The alumina industry has a negative feedback effect on caustic soda, and the high - profit hoarding of caustic soda in late 2024 is hard to replicate [70][76]. - The pulp industry's production capacity is expanding, and the demand is in the peak season, but the terminal profit is being compressed. The production capacity of the finished paper industry is stable, and the production of viscose staple fiber and the printing and dyeing industry are stable. The production of the water treatment industry is stable, and the production of the ternary precursor industry is increasing [83][90][94][96][98]. 3.5 PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis is oscillating strongly, and the 1 - 5 month spread is oscillating weakly [104]. 3.6 PVC Supply and Demand - The PVC start - up rate has increased month - on - month. In November 2025, maintenance has decreased. By 2025, 2.2 million tons of new production capacity will be put into operation, and there will be no new production capacity in 2026 [110][114][115]. - The profit of the northwest integrated device is at a low level, and winter is the traditional off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, weakening the impact of profit on supply [117]. - PVC production enterprises have slightly reduced inventory, while the social inventory is at a high level. The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the overall start - up rate of the PVC downstream has decreased month - on - month [121][126][132]. - From January to September, the cumulative export volume is 2.9216 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 21.945% and a year - on - year increase of 24.53%. The cumulative year - on - year increase is 50.63%. India is still the most important export destination. The number of PVC warehouse receipts is continuously increasing [139][140].