聚酯数据周报-20251123

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a weekly analysis of the polyester industry, covering PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products. It includes supply, demand, valuation, and inventory information, as well as trading strategies [3][4][5] Group 2: PX Analysis Valuation - Domestic PX drives up the overseas market, and the PXN spread has strengthened significantly. The gasoline market has ended the squeeze and started to build inventories. The disproportionation unit is in a loss, and the PX - MX spread remains high [15][22][23] Supply - The domestic PX operating rate is at a historical high, with an operating rate of 89.5% (+2.7%) this week. The Asian PX operating rate is 79.7% (+1.2%). Some Korean and Japanese devices have maintenance or production reduction plans [42][43] Demand - The PTA operating rate has continued to decline to 72% (-3.7%), reducing the demand for PX [3][4] Inventory - In October, the monthly inventory of PX accumulated by 100,000 tons to 4.02 million tons [65] Strategy - The upside space is limited. For cross - varieties, short PXN and long MEG short PX [3] Group 3: PTA Analysis Valuation - The inventory has continued to accumulate, but the valuation and monthly spread have risen following PX. The processing fee has remained at a low level for a long time [71][81] Supply - The PTA operating rate has declined to 72% (-3.7%). Some devices have stopped or extended the maintenance time, and the weekly output is about 1.41 million tons [4][83] Demand - The polyester device operating rate is 91.3%, with a rigid demand for PTA of 1.33 million tons. Since November, the new orders from the terminal have declined, but the rigid demand still exists [4][5] Inventory - The inventory has slightly accumulated and shifted to the delivery warehouse [106] Strategy - Operate in the range of 4500 - 4800. For cross - periods, conduct a reverse spread for 1 - 5. For cross - varieties, long MEG short PTA [4] Group 4: MEG Analysis Valuation - The monthly spread has declined, the basis has weakened, and the unilateral price trend is weak. The relative valuation has continued to decline, and the device profit is in a loss [120][124][126] Supply - The operating rate has dropped to 70.67% (-1.9%). Multiple coal - chemical devices have short - stopped, and some devices have maintenance plans in the future. The domestic weekly supply is about 405,000 tons [5][129] Demand - The polyester device operating rate remains around 91.3%, with a rigid demand for MEG of 520,000 tons. The new orders from the terminal have declined, but the rigid demand still exists [5] Inventory - The supply - demand balance sheet has improved, and the expected inventory accumulation rate has decreased [139] Strategy - Operate in the range of 3800 - 4000. For cross - periods, conduct a reverse spread for 1 - 5. For cross - varieties, long MEG short PX [5] Group 5: Polyester Analysis Production - The polyester operating rate is 91.3% (+0.8%). In 2025, the polyester production has increased by 8.5% year - on - year, and the growth rate in 2026 is expected to be flat at 5 - 6% [143][150] Export - From January to October, the total polyester export was 12 million tons, +15.2%. The exports of various polyester products have increased to varying degrees [151] Inventory - The downstream sales are sluggish, and the inventory has started to rise [152]