超长债收益率小幅上行

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Last week, due to tight liquidity during the tax - payment period and a sharp decline in the A - share market, the bond market fluctuated narrowly with slightly rising yields, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly and was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][10]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of November 21, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 34BP, at a relatively low historical level. Considering the economic pressure in Q4 and positive investor sentiment, the bond market is more likely to rebound, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress periodically [2][11]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of November 21, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 13BP, at a historically extremely low level. With economic pressure in Q4 and positive investor sentiment, the bond market is likely to rebound, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to continue to compress in the short term [3][12]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - Last week, tight tax - period liquidity and a sharp A - share decline led to a narrow - range bond market oscillation with slightly rising yields, and ultra - long bonds fell slightly. Trading activity increased slightly and was very active. The term spread remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][10]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - 30 - year Treasury Bond: As of November 21, the 30 - 10 spread was 34BP. In October, economic downward pressure increased, with GDP growth at about 4.2% (down 1.1% from September), and deflation risks persisted. The bond market is more likely to rebound, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress periodically [2][11]. - 20 - year CDB Bond: As of November 21, the 20 - year CDB - treasury spread was 13BP. In October, economic downward pressure increased, with GDP growth at about 4.2% (down 1.1% from September), and deflation risks persisted. The bond market is likely to rebound, and the 20 - year CDB bond variety spread is expected to continue to compress in the short term [3][12]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 23.9 trillion. As of October 31, ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years totaled 239,836 billion, accounting for 15.0% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining maturity, the 25 - 35 - year variety accounts for the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (November 17 - 21, 2025), the issuance of ultra - long bonds decreased. A total of 886 billion yuan of ultra - long bonds were issued, a significant drop from the week before. By variety, local government bonds accounted for 811 billion, and company bonds and bank sub - bonds also had issuances. By term, 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds were issued [18]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week totals 1,550 billion yuan, mainly local government bonds, with a small amount of company bonds and medium - term notes [24]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were very actively traded, with a turnover of 9,261 billion yuan, accounting for 11.3% of all bond turnovers. By variety, ultra - long treasury bonds, local bonds, etc. had different turnovers and proportions. Trading activity increased slightly compared to the week before [28]. Yield - Last week, tight tax - period liquidity and a sharp A - share decline led to a narrow - range bond market oscillation with slightly rising yields, and ultra - long bonds fell slightly. Yields of different - term treasury bonds, CDB bonds, etc. had corresponding changes [3][38]. Spread Analysis - Term Spread: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, with an absolute low level. The 30 - 10 treasury bond spread was 34BP, unchanged from the week before, at the 14% quantile since 2010 [49]. - Variety Spread: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, with an absolute low level. The 20 - year CDB - treasury spread was 13BP, and the 20 - year railway bond - treasury spread was 18BP, both down 2BP from the week before, at the 11% and 12% quantiles since 2010 respectively [50]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year treasury bond futures contract TL2512 closed at 115.57 yuan, down 0.51%. Total trading volume was 714,600 lots (up 188,951 lots from the week before), and open interest was 176,300 lots (down 3,026 lots from the week before) [54].