重点关注保险负债端开门红预期,收并购案例有望提升券业集中度
SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-11-23 11:36

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on three main investment lines, particularly highlighting the potential for significant growth in the securities and insurance sectors [2][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the recent merger activities among major securities firms, such as the planned absorption of Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities by CICC, are expected to enhance industry concentration and catalyze valuation recovery in the brokerage sector [1][43]. - It emphasizes the strong performance of listed brokers in Q3, with a current price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.34x, recommending brokers with solid fundamentals but mismatched valuations [2]. - The report also highlights the promising growth prospects in the multi-financial sector, particularly for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is expected to benefit from deepening connectivity and increased activity from A-share companies listing in Hong Kong [2]. Summary by Sections Securities Sector - The report notes a significant merger in the securities industry, with CICC planning to merge with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, which is the third major merger in 2024, following the mergers of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities, and Guoxin Securities acquiring Wanhe Securities [1]. - It highlights the expected impact of this merger on industry concentration and valuation recovery for the brokerage sector [1]. Insurance Sector - The report discusses the recent guidelines issued by the China Actuarial Society regarding the expense allocation for life insurance products, which aims to enhance the scientific and reasonable pricing of insurance products [3]. - It anticipates a double-digit growth in new premium income in the short term, supported by a decrease in liability costs and improved industry concentration in the long term [4]. - The report recommends focusing on leading insurance companies with strong business quality and low liability costs, as well as those undergoing transformation towards dividend insurance [4]. Market Review - The report provides a market review indicating that the CSI 300 index fell by 3.8%, with the non-bank financial sector declining by 4.4%, underperforming the index [10]. - It notes the performance of various sub-sectors, with securities and insurance stocks experiencing declines of 4.9% and 3.0%, respectively [10]. Data Tracking - The report includes data on brokerage activities, noting a decrease in average daily A-share trading volume to 18,650 billion yuan, a decline of 8.7% [15]. - It also highlights significant growth in the issuance of equity public funds and bond underwriting, with IPO and refinancing raising 902 billion and 8,623 billion yuan, respectively, in October 2025 [15].