地方债周度跟踪20251121：减国债利差皆收窄，下周发行明显提速-20251123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis this period but are expected to increase significantly next period. The issuance/net financing of local government bonds this period (2025.11.17 - 2025.11.23) was 184.659 billion yuan/126.343 billion yuan, while the forecast for next period (2025.11.24 - 2025.11.30) is 351.461 billion yuan/326.313 billion yuan [2]. - The issuance of new local government bonds slowed down this period but is expected to speed up significantly next period. As of November 21, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 90.3% and 95.6% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to reach 91.4% and 100.7% considering the forecast for next period [2]. - The spreads between local government bonds and treasury bonds for 10 - year and 30 - year terms narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week - on - week basis. As of November 21, 2025, the spreads for 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 14.34BP and 18.24BP respectively, narrowing by 1.26BP and 3.95BP compared to November 14, 2025. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds was 0.80%, up from 0.71% in the previous period [2]. - The spreads between 15/20/30 - year, especially 15 - year, local government bonds and treasury bonds still have certain cost - effectiveness [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Local Government Bond Issuance and Net Financing - This period's issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased compared to the previous period, and are expected to increase next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 14.30 years, longer than 13.90 years in the previous period [2]. - As of November 21, 2025, 29 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance of 713.3 billion yuan of local government bonds for November - December 2025, including 347.5 billion yuan of new special bonds [2]. 3.2 New Bond Issuance Progress - As of November 21, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 90.3% and 95.6% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the forecast for next period, the proportions are expected to be 91.4% and 100.7%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 90.9%/98.0% and 91.1%/99.2%, and in 2023 was 94.3%/95.9% and 94.5%/96.2% [2]. 3.3 Special Bond Issuance - As of November 21, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 129.67 billion yuan (4.9 billion yuan issued this period). The cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 199.62 billion yuan (0 billion yuan issued this period), with an issuance progress of 99.8%. Since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts was 14.16 billion yuan (4 billion yuan issued this period) [2]. 3.4 Spreads and Turnover Rate - As of November 21, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 14.34BP and 18.24BP respectively, narrowing by 1.26BP and 3.95BP compared to November 14, 2025. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds was 0.80%, up from 0.71% in the previous period [2]. - The 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Xiamen, Beijing, and Jiangxi have better yields and liquidity than the national average [2].