Report Title - Silicon Ferrosilicon & Manganese Silicon Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] Report Date - November 23, 2025 [2] Report Authors - Li Yafei, Jin Yuanyuan [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the raw material segment has cooled, leading to a compensatory decline in alloy prices, with a weak trend [3][5][6]. - The fundamental contradictions in the alloy market continue to accumulate, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of negative feedback from furnace materials [5]. - For ferrosilicon, due to profit compression and seasonal maintenance, some factories in the main production areas have continued to shut down furnaces and reduce production. For manganese silicon, the cost side remains firm, but inventory is high, suppressing the upside potential of the market [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance - This week, the ferrosilicon main contract shifted to the 2603 contract, with a weak and volatile trend, closing at 5,472 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68 yuan/ton from the previous week. Trading volume was 1,512,911 lots, and open interest was 205,123 lots, an increase of 70,578 lots from the previous week [6]. - The manganese silicon 2601 contract also showed a weak and volatile trend, closing at 5,606 yuan/ton, a decrease of 142 yuan/ton from the previous week. Trading volume was 1,101,884 lots, and open interest was 439,441 lots, an increase of 77,685 lots from the previous week [7]. 2. Fundamental Data Ferrosilicon - Supply: Weekly output was 10.83 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.73% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.57%. Due to profit compression and seasonal maintenance, some factories in the main production areas continued to shut down furnaces and reduce production [4][5][61]. - Demand: In September, export volume was 2.56 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 36.14% and a year-on-year decrease of 35.86%. Steelmaking demand was weak, with a slight contraction in hot metal output. Steel procurement volume decreased, and demand was limited [4][74][79]. - Inventory: As of November 21, the inventory of 60 sample enterprises was 73,050 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 8,310 tons. The number of warehouse receipts was 8,276, a week-on-week decrease of 174, equivalent to a decrease of 870 tons. In October, the average number of days of steel mill inventory availability was 15.67 days (+0.15 days) [4][85]. - Profit: The weekly futures profit was -38.00 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 31.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 115.15%. The weekly spot profit was -380.00 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.98% and a year-on-year decrease of 30300.00% [4]. Manganese Silicon - Supply: Weekly output was 19.69 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.33% but a year-on-year increase of 3.06%. Due to high inventory and profit compression, some factories have shut down furnaces and reduced production, but there are still expectations of new furnace startups in the north in the next two months [4][21][57]. - Demand: In September, export volume was 0.32 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 28.34% and a year-on-year decrease of 38.58%. Steelmaking demand was weakly supported, with a slight contraction in hot metal output and weak overall demand for manganese silicon [4][30]. - Inventory: As of November 21, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 363,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 10,500 tons. The number of warehouse receipts was 20,337, a week-on-week increase of 474, equivalent to an increase of 2,370 tons. In October, the average number of days of steel mill inventory availability was 15.67 days (-1.44 days) [4][34][37]. - Profit: The weekly futures profit was -126.09 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 892.67% and a year-on-year decrease of 124.65%. The weekly spot profit was -212.09 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 60.56% and a year-on-year decrease of 190.83% [4]. 3. Macro and Micro Environment - Macro: In China, the CPI turned positive year-on-year in October, and the PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed for three consecutive months. Overseas, the short-term government shutdown in the US ended, and the market's trading focus shifted to interest rate cuts. However, hawkish remarks from Fed officials significantly reduced market expectations for a December interest rate cut [5]. - Micro: Hot metal output decreased slightly week-on-week, weakly supporting the demand for raw materials. The fundamental contradictions in the alloy market continue to accumulate, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of negative feedback from furnace materials [5]. 4. Raw Material Market - Manganese Ore: Global manganese ore shipping volume increased week-on-week, with alternating dominance between South African and Ghanaian ore shipments and Australian ore. The supply and demand of manganese ore are currently relatively balanced, but attention should be paid to potential changes in shipping and the impact of futures prices on port ore quotes [41][48]. - Ferrosilicon Raw Materials: The prices of raw materials such as blue coke and oxidized iron scale remained relatively firm, compressing ferrosilicon profits [95][96].
硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告-20251123
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-11-23 12:00