国泰君安期货·能源化工：甲醇周度报告-20251123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The driver for methanol is downward, but the downside space is narrowing [2][4] - In the short - term, methanol remains in a state of high domestic supply, and the MTO industry's fundamental pressure increases, suppressing the upward space of methanol. With weak macro drivers and a weak industrial chain, methanol has been performing weakly recently. As coal - to - methanol processing profits are gradually compressed, the pricing logic of the cost side has slightly increased in weight. The cost center of coal - to - methanol is expected to gradually stabilize [4] - Unilateral: The unilateral center oscillates downward; the upper pressure for 01 is 2160 - 2170 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 2000 - 2020 yuan/ton. For the spread, the 1 - 5 month spread is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and the spread between MA and PP is in an oscillating pattern [4] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - Multiple graphs show the trends of methanol's basis, monthly spreads (1 - 5, 5 - 9), and warehouse receipts over the years from 2020 - 2025 [7][8][9][10] - Graphs display the trends of domestic spot prices in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Lunan, as well as international spot prices in China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR, and Rotterdam FOB from 2020 - 2025 [12][13][14][16][17][18] - Graphs present the trends of port - inland price spreads (e.g., Taicang - Hebei, Taicang - Sichuan and Chongqing) from 2020 - 2025 [19][20][21][22] Supply - New Capacity Summary: In 2024 - 2025, China has multiple new methanol plants put into operation, with a total domestic capacity expansion of 400 tons in 2024 and 830 tons in 2025. Overseas, there was a total international capacity expansion of 355 tons in 2024 and an expected 330 tons in 2025 [24] - Maintenance Summary: Multiple companies have carried out maintenance, with details such as start - stop dates, daily loss amounts, and total loss amounts provided [27] - Production and Operating Rate: From January 14 - 20, 2025, China's methanol production was 2,014,185 tons, with an operating rate of 88.77%, a week - on - week increase of 2.09%. Next week, production is expected to be around 2.0266 million tons, with an operating rate of around 89.31%. Graphs show the trends of methanol production, operating rates in China and abroad, and production by process (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, etc.) over the years [4][28][30][31][32] - Import - Related: Graphs show the trends of China's monthly methanol import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 - 2025 [38][39][40][41] - Cost and Profit: Graphs display the production costs and profits of methanol produced by different processes (coal - based, coke oven gas - based, etc.) in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Hebei, etc.) from 2020 - 2025 [43][44][45][49][50][51] Demand - Downstream Operating Rate: Graphs show the trends of operating rates of methanol downstream industries such as methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, and others from 2020 - 2025 [53][54][55][56] - Downstream Profit: Graphs present the profit trends of methanol downstream industries such as methanol - to - olefins, formaldehyde, and MTBE in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [60][61][63][64][65][66] - MTO Procurement Volume: Graphs show the procurement volume trends of MTO production enterprises in China and different regions from 2020 - 2025 [68][69][70][71] - Traditional Downstream Procurement Volume: Graphs show the raw material procurement volume trends of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in China and different regions from 2020 - 2025 [73][74][75][76] - Traditional Downstream Inventory: Graphs show the inventory trends of traditional downstream methanol raw materials in China and different regions from 2020 - 2025 [78][79][80][81] Inventory - Factory Inventory: Graphs show the trends of methanol factory inventory in China and different regions (East China, Northwest China, etc.) from 2018 - 2025 [83][84][85][86] - Port Inventory: Graphs show the trends of methanol port inventory in China and different regions (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong) from 2018 - 2025 [89][90][91]