Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - risk appetite in the aluminum market is under pressure, but in the medium - term, the growth potential of aluminum due to AI - related energy and storage demand is still worthy of attention. However, there are also negative factors such as Indonesia's over - expected electrolytic aluminum production and pessimistic photovoltaic demand. In the short - term, the end - of - year destocking of aluminum depends on photovoltaic production and imports [3]. - The fundamental pressure of alumina remains unresolved. The rigid production supply puts pressure on prices, and the price may continue to be under pressure in the short - term [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum - Macro and Medium - term Outlook: The macro risk appetite is under pressure, and the AI narrative bubble is deflating. In the medium - term, the demand for aluminum in the energy and storage sectors related to AI is expected, but there are negative factors like Indonesia's over - expected electrolytic aluminum production and pessimistic photovoltaic demand. In the short - term, the end - year destocking depends on photovoltaic production and imports [3]. - Short - term Micro - supply and Demand: The destocking at the end of the year depends on the year - on - year decline in photovoltaic production in late November and December and the reduction in aluminum ingot imports under processing trade. The aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons to 61.3 million tons this week [3]. - Downstream Demand: The downstream demand is relatively resilient but not strong. The total weekly output of aluminum plate, strip, and foil decreased, and the aluminum profile construction continued to decline slightly. The aluminum rod processing fee increased [3]. Alumina - Fundamentals: The fundamental pressure remains unresolved. The rigid production supply puts pressure on prices, and the price may continue to be under pressure in the short - term. The total inventory continued to increase this week [4]. - Spot and Futures: The spot price is relatively stable, but if the futures price continues to fall, the spot price may follow. The current spot inventory of futures - cash traders is low, and they are waiting for the right time to sell [4]. - Inventory: The total inventory of alumina continued to increase, with the factory inventory decreasing, the electrolytic aluminum factory's alumina inventory increasing slightly, the port inventory decreasing, and the platform/in - transit inventory increasing slightly [43]. Transaction - related (Spread, Volume, and Open Interest) - Term Spread: This week, the A00 spot premium/discount was differentiated, and the alumina spot premium strengthened. The average SMM A00 aluminum premium remained at 0 yuan/ton, while the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium increased from - 145 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton. The premium of Shandong alumina to the current month increased from - 43 yuan/ton to 41 yuan/ton, and that of Henan alumina increased from 42 yuan/ton to 131 yuan/ton [10]. - Monthly Spread: The monthly spread of SHFE aluminum fluctuated slightly [11]. - Volume and Open Interest: The open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract decreased significantly, and the trading volume decreased slightly. The open interest of the alumina main contract increased slightly and is at a historical high, while the trading volume decreased slightly [13]. - Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of SHFE aluminum decreased, and that of alumina continued to decline and is at a historical low [18]. Inventory (Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Products) Bauxite - Port Inventory: As of November 21, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 49.87 million tons week - on - week, and the port inventory days remained basically the same [23]. - Enterprise Inventory: As of October, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises increased by 67 million tons month - on - month, and the inventory days in the alumina factory increased [28]. - Port Shipment and Floating Inventory: As of November 21, the weekly shipment volume from Guinea and Australia ports decreased, and the floating inventory in Guinea increased while that in Australia decreased [29]. - Out - port and In - port Volume: As of November 14, the out - port volume from Australian ports decreased, while that from Guinean ports increased. The in - port volume increased significantly [34]. Alumina - Total Inventory: The total inventory of alumina continued to increase, with the factory inventory decreasing, the electrolytic aluminum factory's alumina inventory increasing slightly, the port inventory decreasing, and the platform/in - transit inventory increasing slightly [43]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Seasonal Pattern and Current Inventory: According to the seasonal pattern, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory usually reaches its peak in the fifth or sixth week after the holiday and then enters a destocking cycle. As of November 20, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 0.1 million tons to 61.3 million tons [51]. Processed Products - Aluminum Rod: The spot inventory and factory inventory of aluminum rods showed a differentiated trend this week [57]. - Aluminum Profile and Plate, Strip, and Foil: As of October, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles decreased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio increased slightly. For SMM aluminum plate, strip, and foil, the finished - product inventory ratio increased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio decreased slightly [60]. Production (Output, Capacity, and Operating Rate) Bauxite - Domestic Supply: The domestic bauxite supply is mainly stable. In October, the SMM - caliber domestic bauxite output decreased slightly. Imported bauxite is an important factor driving the growth of the total supply. By province, the bauxite output in Shanxi showed different trends in different calibers, and the output in Henan decreased while that in Guangxi increased [65]. Alumina - Capacity Utilization and Output: The capacity utilization rate of alumina remained basically stable. As of November 21, the total operating capacity of alumina in the country was 96.6 billion tons, with a weekly increase of 0.6 billion tons. The domestic metallurgical - grade alumina output was 1.845 billion tons this week, an increase of 0.002 billion tons from last week, remaining at a high level in recent years. The short - term supply of alumina remains loose [70]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Operating Capacity and Output: As of October, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate was high due to profit recovery. As of November 20, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum was 0.8547 billion tons, an increase of 0.0003 billion tons from last week, remaining at a six - year high. During the peak consumption season, the proportion of molten aluminum increased, and the ingot casting volume is expected to decrease [73]. Downstream Processing - Output: The output of recycled aluminum rods decreased by 500 tons this week. The output of aluminum rods increased by 0.31 million tons, and the output of aluminum plate, strip, and foil decreased by 0.14 million tons [76]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises remained unchanged. The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip increased slightly, while that of aluminum foil decreased. The operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased slightly, and that of aluminum cables increased slightly. The operating rates of recycled and primary aluminum alloys remained unchanged [77]. Profit Alumina - Overall and Provincial Profits: The profit of alumina decreased slightly this week. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina was 135.4 yuan/ton. By province, the profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, and the profit in Guangxi was better due to relatively firm cost [83]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Profit Level and Uncertainties: The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainties and affected market expectations [95]. Downstream Processing - Aluminum Rod Processing Fee and Profit: The aluminum rod processing fee increased by 170 yuan/ton this week, but the downstream processing profit remains at a low level [96]. Consumption Import and Export Profit and Loss - Import: The import profit and loss of alumina and SHFE aluminum narrowed [105]. - Export: In October 2025, the export of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 1.7 million tons month - on - month. The export demand for aluminum products is blocked by trade policy adjustments, and the export profit and loss of aluminum processed products is differentiated [107]. Apparent Demand - Consumption Volume: The commercial housing transaction area decreased, and the automobile production increased month - on - month [115].
铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告-20251123
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-11-23 11:54