锌产业链周度报告-20251123

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Zinc Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Analyst: Ji Xianfei (Chief Analyst/Co-Administrative Head), Wang Zongyuan (Contact Person) [1] - Date: November 23, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Zinc supply and demand are relatively balanced, and prices will fluctuate in the short term [2][5] - The domestic zinc market shows a pattern of small inventory reduction and a decline in galvanizing starts [3] - In the strategy, the internal and external reverse arbitrage has a certain profit - loss ratio, but the driving logic within the year is not strong, and participation should be cautious [5] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Price: The closing price of SHFE zinc last week was 22,395 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.13%; the night - session closing price was 22,345 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.22%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 2,992 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.75% [6] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of SHFE zinc last Friday was 74,639 lots, a decrease of 48,993 lots from the previous week; the open interest was 52,299 lots, a decrease of 47,854 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 12,602 lots, a decrease of 14,959 lots; the open interest was 218,189 lots, a decrease of 9,321 lots [6] - Inventory: SHFE zinc warehouse receipts increased by 1,144 tons, the total SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 545 tons, the social inventory decreased by 5,200 tons, the LME zinc inventory increased by 8,350 tons, and the bonded area inventory decreased by 200 tons [6] 2. Industry Chain Comparison - Inventory: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have declined from high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventories have decreased [8] - Profit: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at the historical median [10] - Start - up Rate: The zinc smelting start - up rate has declined, and the downstream start - up rate is at a historically low - to - medium level [12] 3. Trading Aspects - Spot: The spot premiums in Guangdong and Tianjin have significantly strengthened. Overseas premiums are differentiated, with Singapore's premium remaining stable, and LME CASH - 3M remaining around 120 US dollars [16][17] - Spread: SHFE zinc maintains a C - structure, but there are certain changes in the far end [19] - Inventory: There has been a small reduction in inventory this week, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio has continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, and the total LME inventory has increased [21][25] - Futures: The domestic open interest is at the historical median for the same period [28] 4. Supply - Zinc Concentrate: Zinc concentrate imports have dropped significantly, domestic zinc ore production has increased, import ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees have decreased significantly. The arrival of zinc ore at ports is at a high level, and smelter raw material inventories have decreased [31][32] - Refined Zinc: Smelting output has rebounded and is at a high level for the same period in history. Smelter finished product inventories have decreased and are at a high level for the same period in history. Zinc alloy production is at a high level [39] 5. Demand - Refined Zinc Consumption: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [45] - Downstream: The monthly start - up rate of downstream industries has slightly declined, mostly at a historically low - to - medium level for the same period [48] - Terminal: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [65] 6. Overseas Factors - Energy Prices: The prices of European natural gas, carbon, and electricity have shown certain fluctuations, which have an impact on the profitability of overseas zinc smelters [67][68][69]