国泰君安期货·能源化工：合成橡胶周度报告-20251123

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: November 23, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - Synthetic Rubber: Synthetic rubber is expected to operate weakly within the valuation range. The supply of high - cis butadiene rubber has increased, while the demand from the tire industry has limited improvement, and the inventory has increased. The valuation logic has shifted, and the mid - term strategy is to go short on rallies [2][4][6]. - Butadiene: Butadiene is expected to be in a short - term volatile and long - term weak trend. The supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the inventory has increased significantly [9]. Summary by Directory Synthetic Rubber Supply - This cycle, Zhejiang Petrochemical continued its shutdown for maintenance, and Zhenhua New Material's butadiene rubber unit restarted. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.88%. The capacity utilization rate was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.72 percentage points. Next cycle, Maoming Petrochemical's butadiene rubber unit is expected to shut down for maintenance [4]. Demand - Tire Demand: This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased. Next cycle, it is expected to recover, but the overall demand increase is limited. - Substitute Demand: The NR - BR main contract spread remains high, and the substitute demand is also high, so the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a year - on - year high growth rate [4]. Inventory - As of November 19, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 31,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.24%. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises changed slightly [5]. Valuation - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 9,700 - 10,700 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support to NR - BR spread support. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost [5]. Strategy - Single - sided: Adopt a mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies without chasing short positions. The upper pressure is 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 9,600 - 9,700 yuan/ton [6]. - Cross - variety: The NR - BR spread is at a high valuation and is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7]. Butadiene Supply - This cycle, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 115,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.67%. Next week, the output is expected to be about 115,000 tons, a slight decrease [9]. Demand - Synthetic Rubber: The mid - term operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a year - on - year high. In December, with the reduction of butadiene rubber unit maintenance, the rigid demand for butadiene is expected to increase. - ABS: The inventory pressure is high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand. - SBS: The operating rate has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remains rigid with little change [11]. Inventory - From November 13 - 19, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased significantly, a week - on - week increase of 17.99%. The inventory of sample enterprises increased by 1.17%, and the inventory of sample ports increased by 37.24%. As of November 19, the inventory at East China ports was about 39,800 tons, an increase of 10,800 tons from the previous cycle [11]. View - In the short term, the low absolute price drives downstream periodic replenishment, the trading improves, and the price stabilizes. In the long term, the supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the fundamental pressure is still high, so it is expected to be in a weak pattern [9].