Soochow Securities·2025-11-23 13:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ctrip Group-S (09961.HK) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the continuous expansion in overseas markets, with an optimistic outlook on the increase in international business share and profit margins [1][8] - Ctrip's international business is experiencing rapid growth, with significant increases in booking volumes, particularly in Turkey and other key markets [8] - The company's adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised from 18.3 billion to 32.3 billion RMB, reflecting strong performance and market share growth [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 44.51 billion RMB in 2023 to 76.17 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.39% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase significantly from 9.92 billion RMB in 2023 to 21.22 billion RMB in 2027, with a peak growth rate of 606.91% in 2024 [1] - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to rise from 13.07 billion RMB in 2023 to 22.02 billion RMB in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [1] Market Data - The closing price of Ctrip Group-S is 537.50 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 349.13 billion HKD [5] - The stock has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35.19 based on the latest diluted earnings per share (EPS) [1] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.08, indicating its valuation relative to its book value [5] Operational Highlights - Ctrip's outbound travel bookings have reached 140% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 20% [8] - The company has established a strategic partnership with the Turkish tourism board to promote Turkey as a global tourist destination, resulting in a 38% increase in inbound flight bookings to Turkey [8] - The report notes a stabilization in domestic hotel prices and a significant increase in inbound travel bookings, with over 100% growth year-on-year [8]