商品期权周报：2025年第47周-20251123

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The trading volume of the commodity options market rebounded slightly this week, with an average daily trading volume of 8.54 million lots and an average daily open interest of 10.19 million lots, showing a month - on - month change of +10.09% and - 0.74% respectively. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][9] - Most of the underlying futures of commodity options declined this week, with 48 varieties closing lower. The varieties with relatively high weekly gains were lithium carbonate (+4.19%) and iron ore (+1.68%); those with relatively high weekly losses were silver (-5.62%), pulp (-4.60%), and fuel oil (-4.58%) [2][16] - This week, the implied volatility of 29 commodity options increased weekly, and 17 varieties had their current implied volatility above the 50% quantile of the past year. For varieties with implied volatility at a historical high, beware of unilateral risks and consider short - selling volatility opportunities; for those at a historical low, buying options has a relatively high cost - performance [2][16] - The PCR of trading volume of pulp, LPG, soybean meal, live pigs, and manganese silicon is at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on a decline; the PCR of trading volume of styrene, industrial silicon, and pure benzene is at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bet on an increase. The PCR of open interest of p - xylene, lithium carbonate, apples, and iron ore is at a historical high, showing a high - level accumulation of bearish sentiment; while that of glass, plastic, palm oil, methanol, aluminum, and urea is at a one - year low, indicating an accumulation of bullish sentiment [3][17] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of actively traded varieties this week included silver (1.09 million lots), lithium carbonate (0.81 million lots), and glass (0.59 million lots). Four varieties had a trading volume increase of over 100%, including synthetic rubber (+138%), p - xylene (+121%), lithium carbonate (+120%), and industrial silicon (109%). The varieties with a significant decline in trading volume were crude oil (-57%), caustic soda (-52%), and PTA (-42%) [1][9] - The varieties with a relatively high average daily open interest this week were glass (0.96 million lots), soybean meal (0.82 million lots), and soda ash (0.81 million lots). The varieties with a relatively rapid month - on - month increase in average daily open interest were industrial silicon (+49%), p - xylene (+42%), and lithium carbonate (+40%) [1][9] 2. This Week's Main Data Review of Commodity Options 2.1 Underlying Futures Price Movements - Most underlying futures of commodity options declined this week, with 48 varieties closing lower. The varieties with relatively high weekly gains were lithium carbonate (+4.19%) and iron ore (+1.68%); those with relatively high weekly losses were silver (-5.62%), pulp (-4.60%), and fuel oil (-4.58%) [2][16] 2.2 Market Volatility - The implied volatility of 29 commodity options increased weekly, and 17 varieties had their current implied volatility above the 50% quantile of the past year. The implied volatility of lithium carbonate increased by 16.18 percentage points this week. Varieties with implied volatility at a historical high included apples, lithium carbonate, gold, silver, ethylene glycol, and methanol; those at a historical low included urea, rapeseed meal, soybean meal, cotton, manganese silicon, pulp, and rubber [2][16] 2.3 Options Market Sentiment - The PCR of trading volume of pulp, LPG, soybean meal, live pigs, and manganese silicon is at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on a decline; the PCR of trading volume of styrene, industrial silicon, and pure benzene is at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bet on an increase. The PCR of open interest of p - xylene, lithium carbonate, apples, and iron ore is at a historical high, showing a high - level accumulation of bearish sentiment; while that of glass, plastic, palm oil, methanol, aluminum, and urea is at a one - year low, indicating an accumulation of bullish sentiment [3][17] 3. Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data of other varieties can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [21] 3.1 Energy - Relevant charts show data such as the total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR of crude oil [23][25] 3.2 Chemicals - PTA: Charts display data on total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR [30][37] - Caustic Soda: Similar data is presented through corresponding charts [39][40] - Glass: Key data is shown in relevant charts [46][47] - Soda Ash: Data is presented via charts [52][53] 3.3 Precious Metals - Charts show data on silver, including total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR [58][59] 3.4 Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: Data such as total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are presented in charts [66][69] - Manganese Silicon: Similar data is shown through corresponding charts [74][75] 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Charts display data on total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR [82][88] - Aluminum: Key data is presented via relevant charts [91][94] 3.6 Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: Data such as total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are shown in charts [100][103] - Palm Oil: Similar data is presented through corresponding charts [106][107] - Cotton: Key data is shown in relevant charts [114][115]