——房地产行业周度观点更新：定向降低购房负担意味着什么？-20251123

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [13]. Core Insights - The targeted reduction of housing burdens is primarily achieved through interest subsidies or tax deductions, with the method of implementation being crucial. Sustainability is more important than the magnitude and scope of the subsidies. If subsidies are limited to a few years, their effectiveness in stabilizing prices may be limited. Subsidizing only new homes initially incurs lower costs but may gradually accumulate and increase the replacement of new homes over existing stock. If existing stock is also considered, the policy costs will significantly rise. Income expectations are more critical than interest rates for housing prices, and interest subsidies can gradually resolve the issue of inverted returns, but income expectations depend on overall demand expansion or distribution reforms. Overall, the targeted reduction of housing burdens supports the "small cycle" of good properties and aids in the further development of the "incremental drives stock" logic [2][10]. Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 6.19% this week, with an excess return of -2.42% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 23rd out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the real estate index has increased by 7.75%, with an excess return of -5.43%, ranking 25th out of 32 [7][17]. Policy Developments - A national urban renewal work promotion meeting was held, focusing on planning, funding, operation, and governance. The meeting emphasized the systematic promotion of "good houses, good communities, good neighborhoods, and good urban areas" [8][19]. Sales Data - In the past week, the transaction volume of new homes in 37 cities showed a rolling year-on-year decrease of 40.3%, while the transaction volume of second-hand homes in 17 cities showed a rolling year-on-year decrease of 21.6%. Year-to-date, the cumulative transaction volume of new homes in 37 cities has decreased by 12.6%, while that of second-hand homes has increased by 8.0% [9][10].