Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that ZTO Express achieved a year-on-year growth of 9.8% in parcel volume for Q3 2025, driven by a strong performance in the bulk parcel segment, which saw nearly 50% growth year-on-year [3][6] - The company adjusted its full-year parcel volume growth target down to 12.3% to 13.8%, reflecting a more cautious outlook while emphasizing quality and market share expansion [5] - The report suggests that the express delivery industry still has significant growth potential, particularly in the context of e-commerce and the ongoing "anti-involution" trend, which shifts focus from quantity to quality [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, ZTO Express reported total revenue of 34.588 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, with adjusted net profit of 6.818 billion yuan, down 8.1% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 11.865 billion yuan, up 11.1% year-on-year, and adjusted net profit of 2.506 billion yuan, up 5.0% year-on-year [2] Operational Metrics - In Q3 2025, ZTO Express handled 9.573 billion parcels, marking a 9.8% increase year-on-year, with a market share of approximately 19.4%, maintaining the leading position in the industry [3] - The average revenue per parcel in Q3 was 1.15 yuan, reflecting a 2.3% increase year-on-year, attributed to improved pricing dynamics due to the "anti-involution" trend [3] Cost and Profitability - The cost per parcel in Q3 was approximately 0.59 yuan, down 8.5% year-on-year, with significant reductions in line-haul and sorting costs [4] - The adjusted net profit per parcel was 0.262 yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year, but up 25.6% quarter-on-quarter, indicating improved profitability trends [4] Future Outlook - The report projects adjusted net profits for ZTO Express to be 9.870 billion yuan in 2025, with growth rates of -2.08%, 14.21%, and 11.11% for the following years [7] - The company is expected to leverage its scale and operational efficiencies to achieve stable growth in both parcel volume and profitability [7]
中通快递-W（02057）：2025年三季报点评：Q3件量同比+9.8%，“反内卷”带动盈利修复