锡周报-20251123

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, tin prices have declined, returning to around the 290,000 yuan central level. The recent fundamentals of tin are relatively strong. Domestic social inventories are continuously decreasing, and supply bottlenecks are obvious, with the resumption of production in Myanmar still uncertain and a significant reduction in Indonesia's export volume due to year - end and first - quarter export quota restrictions. Demand benefits from AI development, and macro funds are enthusiastic about AI metals. Tin price increases recently are mainly affected by macro sentiment. While its fundamentals are not weak, there is good elasticity. Without macro factors, the fundamental contradictions of tin prices are insufficient to support a breakthrough above 300,000 yuan, but the overall price remains resilient. The strength analysis is neutral, and the price range is 288,000 - 295,000 yuan/ton [3][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) - Spot: This week, the LME 0 - 3 premium is 95 US dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium is 600 yuan/ton. Overseas premium has declined, while premiums in Baltimore and Taiwan regions have increased [10][11][16] - Spread: This week, the tin inter - month structure has changed from the previous B structure to the C structure [19][20] - Inventory: This week, domestic social inventories have increased by 211 tons, and futures inventories have decreased by 26 tons. LME inventories have increased by 20 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio has risen to 7.78% [25][26][31] - Funds: As of this Friday, the precipitated funds for Shanghai tin are 228.888 million yuan, and the fund flow in the past 10 days has been in the inflow direction [36] - Transaction and Position: This week, the trading volume and position of Shanghai tin have slightly declined, while the position volume has slightly increased. The trading volume of LME tin has slightly rebounded, and the position has continued to rise [38][39][43] - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: This week, the position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin has slightly rebounded [48] 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) - Tin Ore: In July 2025, the output of tin concentrates was 6,409 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.63%. In October 2025, 11,632 tons were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 22.54%, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 25.72%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained at 12,000 yuan/ton, while the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,000 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss level of tin ore has slightly rebounded [52][53] - Smelting: In September 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 16,090 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.25%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 68.93%, a slight decline from last week [58][60] - Import: In October 2025, China imported 526 tons of tin ingots and exported 1,480 tons, with a net export of 945 tons. Among them, 124 tons of tin ingots were imported from Indonesia to China. The latest import profit and loss is - 25,012 yuan/ton [63][64] 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - users) - Consumption Volume: In October 2025, the apparent consumption volume of tin ingots was 15,136 tons, and the actual consumption volume was 16,342 tons [72] - Tin Materials: This week, the downstream processing fees have slightly declined. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in October has increased to 73.1%. The output and sales volume of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in August have slightly rebounded [75] - End - user Consumption: In October 2025, the output of end - user products has shown different performances. The monthly output of integrated circuits, electronics, smartphones, and household appliances such as air conditioners has declined. However, the consumption of household appliances and new energy has rebounded month - on - month. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has rebounded, showing the same trend as tin prices [82][84][89]