国泰君安期货研究周报：绿色金融与新能源-20251123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The inventory accumulation pace has slightly slowed down, but the long - term logic of low - cost wet - process supply increase still exists. Short - term macro and news factors may lead to some price repairs. The upward price space is limited, and attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of Indonesian news [4]. - Stainless Steel: The fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is limited. The market is affected by macro factors and concerns about Indonesian policies. Short - term low - level short - selling has risks [5]. - Industrial Silicon: The futures warehouse receipts are being cleared, and the bottom of the disk has obvious support. It is recommended to take a long - position strategy at low prices, and pay attention to whether the organic silicon enterprises can implement joint production cuts [33]. - Polysilicon: As it approaches the centralized cancellation period, the reduction of warehouse receipts may boost the near - month contracts. The fundamentals are in a weak supply - demand situation, and short - term long - position layout at low prices is recommended [34]. - Lithium Carbonate: At the end of the month, the expectations of downstream replenishment and mine resumption intensify the long - short game. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in November and the price center will decline in December [66]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: For nickel, the inventory accumulation contradiction still exists, but the marginal slowdown is due to the reduction of domestic refined nickel production in November. The long - term supply increase expectation of low - cost wet - process remains. For stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak with high upstream inventory, weak terminal demand, and a supply - demand situation of slight surplus [4][5]. - Inventory Tracking: Chinese refined nickel social inventory decreased, LME nickel inventory increased. In the new energy sector, the inventory days of some products changed. In the nickel - iron and stainless - steel sector, the inventory of nickel - iron and stainless - steel increased to varying degrees [6][7]. - Market News: There are multiple events in Indonesia, such as mine take - over, sanctions on mining companies, and policy changes regarding RKAB. China has suspended a non - official subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia. Some nickel wet - process projects in Indonesia will reduce production due to safety inspections [8][9][11]. - Key Data Tracking: The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and other indicators of nickel and stainless - steel futures and related products [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Price Trends: Industrial silicon's futures price first rose and then fell, with the spot price rising. Polysilicon's futures price also first rose and then fell, while the spot price remained stable [28]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: Industrial silicon's industry inventory increased slightly this week, with production decreasing in the southwest and slightly increasing in Gansu. The demand is in a weak rigid - demand pattern. Polysilicon's upstream inventory increased, with some production cuts expected in the future [29][30]. - Market Views: For industrial silicon, the futures warehouse receipts are being cleared, and the disk has support. A long - position strategy at low prices is recommended. For polysilicon, as it approaches the cancellation period, the near - month contracts may rise. A short - term long - position layout at low prices is recommended [33][34]. - Data and Charts: The report presents a large number of data and charts on the prices, production, inventory, and consumption of industrial silicon and polysilicon and their related products [37][39][40] Lithium Carbonate - Price Trends: The lithium carbonate futures contract had large fluctuations this week, with the price center rising. The spot price also increased [64]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: The raw material side has news of mine resumption expectations. The weekly production increased, and the inventory reduction speed slowed down [65]. - Market Views: The long - short game is intensifying at the end of the month. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in November and the price center will decline in December. A positive - spread arbitrage strategy is recommended for the inter - period operation, and upstream producers are recommended to carry out selling hedging, while downstream enterprises are recommended to reduce the hedging ratio [66][68]. - Data and Charts: The report provides data and charts on the prices, production, inventory, and consumption of lithium carbonate and related products [70][74][85]