——煤炭行业周报（2025.11.15-2025.11.21）：产地供给偏紧，预计煤价整理后仍将上涨-20251123

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, suggesting an "Overweight" rating for the sector, indicating expected performance above the market average [36]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the supply of coal is tightening due to stricter safety and environmental regulations, which is expected to support price increases in the future [3][8]. - It notes that the demand for thermal coal is anticipated to rise during the winter heating season, further driving prices upward after adjustments [3][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term contracts for coal supply, as mandated by the National Development and Reform Commission, to ensure stable energy supply [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines for signing long-term coal supply contracts, requiring power generation companies to secure at least 80% of their coal needs based on projected consumption [8]. - A new coal-to-natural gas project in Xinjiang has commenced, focusing on green development in the coal chemical sector [5]. 2. Domestic Thermal Coal Prices - As of November 21, thermal coal prices have shown stability with slight increases in certain regions, such as a rise of 5 CNY/ton in Datong [9]. - The overall thermal coal price index remains stable, with the Qinhuangdao port price holding steady at 710 CNY/ton [9]. 3. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices have decreased to 62.56 USD/barrel, reflecting a drop of 2.84% [16]. - The report notes a rising ratio of international oil prices to coal prices, indicating potential implications for coal pricing dynamics [16]. 4. Inventory Levels in the Bohai Rim - Coal inventory levels in the Bohai Rim have increased, with average daily coal inflow rising by 4.49% week-on-week [19]. - The total coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports reached 25.983 million tons, up 6.94% from the previous week [19]. 5. Domestic Coastal Freight Rates - Domestic coastal freight rates have decreased to 47.27 CNY/ton, a decline of 8.25% [27]. - In contrast, international freight rates have seen slight increases, with Indonesian coal freight rates rising by 0.4% [27]. 6. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting metrics such as EPS and PE ratios for companies like China Shenhua and Shanxi Coal [31].