国泰君安期货·能源化工：C3产业链周度报告-20251123

Report Information - Report Name: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: November 23, 2025 - Author: Chen Xinchao - Company: Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Viewpoints LPG Part - Supply: Domestic LPG production decreased by 0.9% week-on-week to 506,000 tons, while international market supply was tight in the Middle East and US propane inventory declined. The actual arrival volume of international ships in China met expectations, and the planned arrival volume is expected to increase next week [3]. - Demand: Civilian demand increased due to lower temperatures, but chemical demand decreased as PDH and MTBE operating rates declined. The market price of civilian gas decreased due to increased supply and lower crude oil prices, while imported gas prices first rose and then fell [3]. - Viewpoint: In the short term, winter combustion demand will support propane prices, but the deep losses of PDH plants and the possible delay of restart plans will limit the upside space of propane. The market is waiting for the release of the December CP official price [3]. Propylene Part - Supply: The domestic propylene market supply tightened slightly, with weekly production decreasing by 11,000 tons to 1.215 million tons and the overall capacity utilization rate dropping by 0.7% to 73.5%. PDH operating rates decreased by 2% to around 70% [4]. - Demand: Propylene prices first rose and then stabilized, driven by demand. In the early part of the week, downstream plants resumed operation, providing demand support, but in the later part, high propylene prices compressed downstream profits, leading to a decrease in procurement enthusiasm [4]. - Viewpoint: In the short term, propylene prices may fluctuate within a narrow range. If PP continues to be weak, propylene prices may be under pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Directory LPG Part Price & Spread - Domestic Spot and Basis: The price of civilian gas decreased, while the import cost first rose and then fell. The basis of civilian gas and imported gas also changed [7]. - Regional Quotations, Discounts, and Freight: The Middle East spot market was tight, the arbitrage space from the US Gulf to the Far East expanded, and freight rates remained stable [15]. - Propane Price: The supply of propane in December was tight, and the market price first rose and then fell [24]. Supply - US Propane Shipment: The shipment volume decreased slightly week-on-week, but Asian buying interest was high [38]. - Canadian Propane Shipment: The shipment volume increased slightly [39]. - Middle East LPG Shipment: The shipment volume decreased week-on-week [46]. - LPG Commodity Volume: The total LPG commodity volume was 506,000 tons (-0.9%), and the civilian gas commodity volume was 204,000 tons (+0.3%) [63]. - Propane Commodity Volume: The import arrival volume increased by 50,000 tons [72]. Demand & Inventory - Chemical Demand: The operating rates of PDH and MTBE decreased [77]. - LPG Refinery Inventory: The inventory was neutral year-on-year, with significant inventory accumulation in South China [95]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - Propylene Industry Chain Price: The cost support was weak, but the supply and demand tightened, and propylene prices were strong. The upstream profits improved week-on-week [106]. - Propylene Price: International and US dollar prices remained stable, while domestic prices were strong due to tightened supply and demand [111][119]. Balance Sheet - Propylene National Balance Sheet: The supply and demand changes were limited, and the inventory decreased slightly [132]. - Propylene Shandong Balance Sheet: The supply and demand changes were also limited, and the inventory decreased slightly [141]. Supply - Propylene Upstream Overall Operating Rate: The overall operating rate was 73.5% (-0.7%) [156]. - Propylene Upstream - Refinery/Principal Operating Rate: The principal refinery operating rate decreased to 76%, and the profit was at a high level year-on-year. The independent refinery operating rate and profit were similar to those in 2024 [158]. - Propylene Upstream - Cracking/Ethylene Cracking: The ethylene cracking operating rate was 81.8% (-0.3%), and the cracking profit remained low [167]. - Propylene Upstream - PDH: The capacity utilization rate was 69.6% (-2.1%) [172]. - Propylene Upstream - MTO: The capacity utilization rate was 89.7% (+0.4%) [178]. - Propylene Import and Export: The import arbitrage space remained closed, but improved week-on-week [186]. Demand - Propylene Downstream - PP: The capacity utilization rate was 78.3% (-1.3%), and the PDH production profit decreased week-on-week, while the profits of other plants improved [189][194]. - Propylene Downstream - PP Powder: The capacity utilization rate was 46.6% (+3.0%) [204]. - Propylene Downstream - PO: The capacity utilization rate was 75.2% (+0.3%) [214]. - Propylene Downstream - Acrylonitrile: The capacity utilization rate was 79.7% (+0.8%) [227]. - Propylene Downstream - Acrylic Acid: The capacity utilization rate was 73.0% (+0.9%) [232]. - Propylene Downstream - n-Butanol: The capacity utilization rate was 81.6% (-2.1%) [240]. - Propylene Downstream - Octanol: The capacity utilization rate was 77.0% (+8.0%) [247]. - Propylene Downstream - Phenol-Ketone: The capacity utilization rate was 79.0% (+12.0%) [251]. - Propylene Downstream - ECH: The capacity utilization rate was 47.57% (+4.87%) [260]. Downstream Inventory - PP and PP Powder Inventory: The inventory of PP production enterprises, traders, and ports decreased [264]. - Other Downstream Inventory: The inventory of phenol, acetone, acrylonitrile, etc. also changed [275][276].