国泰君安期货·能源化工：纸浆周度报告-20251123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The pulp market is expected to remain in a volatile and weak pattern in the short - term. The supply - demand fundamentals have not improved substantially, with port inventories continuing to accumulate at a high level and downstream demand remaining weak, resulting in limited support for pulp prices [99]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of November 20, 2025, the pulp inventory in Changshu Port was 555,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous period, a 2.5% month - on - month decrease; the inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.463 million tons, an increase of 58,000 tons from the previous week, a 4.1% month - on - month increase; the inventory in Gaolan Port was 51,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous week, a 24.4% month - on - month increase. The sample inventory of China's major pulp ports was 2.173 million tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.0% month - on - month increase [5][6]. - In October 2025, the import volume of bleached softwood pulp was 691,000 tons, a 0.1% month - on - month increase and a 6.0% year - on - year increase. The cumulative import volume for the year was 7.122 million tons, a 2.7% cumulative year - on - year increase. The import volume of bleached hardwood pulp was 1.318 million tons, a 2.8% month - on - month decrease and an 8.2% year - on - year increase. The cumulative import volume for the year was 13.826 million tons, a 10.3% cumulative year - on - year increase [6][7]. 3.2 Market Data - Market Trends: Included the analysis of the basis of silver star and Russian needle pulp, the spread between silver star and Russian needle pulp, and the monthly spread of 01 - 03 and 03 - 05 [13][14][19]. - Basis and Monthly Spread: On November 21, 2025, the basis of silver star pulp was 222 yuan/ton, a 217.14% month - on - month increase; the basis of Russian needle pulp was - 28 yuan/ton, a 65.00% month - on - month increase; the spread between silver star and Russian needle pulp was 250 yuan/ton, a 66.67% month - on - month increase [14]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price: - The spread between softwood and hardwood pulp decreased. On November 21, 2025, the spread between silver star and goldfish pulp was 1,050 yuan/ton, an 8.70% month - on - month decrease; the spread between Russian needle and goldfish pulp was 800 yuan/ton, a 20.00% month - on - month decrease [23][25]. - The import profit of softwood and hardwood pulp decreased. On November 21, 2025, the import profit of silver star softwood pulp was - 76.03 yuan/ton, a 373.44% month - on - month decrease; the import profit of star hardwood pulp was 45.21 yuan/ton, a 6.32% month - on - month decrease [28][30]. - The price of imported softwood pulp decreased. On November 21, 2025, the price of silver star pulp was 5,450 yuan/ton, a 1.80% month - on - month decrease; the price of Russian needle pulp was 5,200 yuan/ton, a 3.70% month - on - month decrease [32][33]. - The price of hardwood pulp was relatively stable. On November 21, 2025, the price of goldfish pulp was 4,400 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [37]. - Supply: - The price of wood chips in East China was differentiated. On November 21, 2025, the purchase price of eucalyptus wood chips by Liansheng Pulp and Paper was 1,200 yuan/ton, a 1.69% month - on - month increase; the purchase price of pine wood chips by Wuzhou Special Paper was 1,060 yuan/ton, a 9.40% month - on - month decrease [42][44]. - The price of domestic pulp was stable, and the supply of hardwood pulp increased. On November 20, 2025, the weekly output of domestic hardwood pulp was 117,000 tons, a 27.17% month - on - month increase [46][48]. - In September 2025, the pulp port inventory in Europe decreased month - on - month; in October, the inventory days of softwood pulp in Europe decreased month - on - month [50][52]. - In August 2025, the shipment volume of W20 softwood pulp was at a low level, and the inventory was high; the shipment volume of hardwood pulp continued to be at a high level, but the inventory days were low [54][56]. - In August 2025, the export volume of softwood pulp from four countries (Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States) to China decreased month - on - month and was at a low level year - on - year; in September, the export volume of Finland to China increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year; in October, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China continued to increase month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [60]. - In September 2025, the export volume of hardwood pulp from four countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile) increased both month - on - month and year - on - year; in October, the export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp decreased slightly month - on - month, and the export volume of Uruguay decreased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [64]. - In October 2025, China's pulp imports were differentiated. The import volume of softwood pulp increased by 0.06% month - on - month, the import volume of hardwood pulp decreased by 2.77% month - on - month, and the import volume of unbleached pulp and chemimechanical pulp increased significantly [66][68]. - Demand: - Offset Paper: The average price of offset paper enterprises was stable. Due to industry profitability and production and sales pressure, some factories' production lines were converted or the production load was reduced. The demand was weak, with no concentrated supply of publication orders and dull social orders [70]. - Coated Paper: The price of coated paper decreased slightly. Some production lines continued the maintenance state, and the supply decreased slightly. The demand was weak, with no concentrated supply of publication orders and no obvious improvement in social orders [74]. - White Cardboard: The market price of white cardboard was stable. The production cost increased and then stabilized. The supply was stable, and the inventory pressure of paper mills was not large. The demand was mainly for rigid needs [78]. - Household Paper: The market price of household paper was stable. The terminal demand did not show an obvious recovery, and the inventory pressure of some paper mills was difficult to release in the short term. The cost support of raw material pulp was weak [82]. - Terminal Demand: In October 2025, the retail sales of cultural and office supplies, cosmetics, and daily necessities increased significantly year - on - year [86]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - Supply: In October 2025, the import volume of bleached softwood pulp increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. As of November 20, 2025, the sample inventory of China's major pulp ports increased for two consecutive weeks [98]. - Demand: The downstream demand was weak, and the cost transmission was difficult. The downstream paper industry was not performing well, and the demand was weak. The paper mills had poor profitability and limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials [99]. - View: The pulp market is expected to remain in a volatile and weak pattern in the short - term, as the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved substantially [99]. - Strategy: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies for single - side trading; observe for inter - period and inter - variety trading; investors meeting the suitability requirements can consider selling out - of - the - money options in the range of [5000 - 6000] [99].