海外对于流动性和AI泡沫担忧，A股正在构建布局机会

Market Overview - Recent A-shares lack a sustained mainline, with some institutions achieving significant profits this year, leading to a more cautious approach in Q4[2] - External influences are creating rare layout opportunities for the ongoing bull market driven by AI technology and re-inflation[2][5] Economic Indicators - Concerns over liquidity and AI bubbles have intensified, causing major global risk assets to decline sharply[6] - The Nasdaq experienced a rare volatility of 4.89%, shifting from tech to retail defensive stocks[6] - U.S. non-farm payroll data for September exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, marking three consecutive months of increase[7] Federal Reserve Insights - As of November 21, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates in December rose to 67.1%, up from 55.6% a week prior and just 1.7% a month ago[9] - The Fed's October meeting minutes revealed divisions among officials regarding potential rate cuts in December[8] AI Market Dynamics - Market concerns are primarily focused on the overspending issues within the U.S. AI industry rather than the technology's inherent value[10] - Breakthroughs in AI models by companies like Alibaba and Google indicate that the global AI industry continues to develop rapidly, maintaining a long-term upward trend[10] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing tensions between China and Japan remain a focal point, with no signs of easing, impacting market sentiment[10] - The global defense market is expected to see increased demand due to ongoing geopolitical instability and military dynamics[11][12]