海外铅锌矿企业季度运营分析：长单博弈将近，TC或震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc: Oscillation; Lead: Oscillation [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas zinc mine production supply continues to be released, while lead mine production is slightly lower than expected. The total zinc concentrate output of overseas sample mining enterprises in Q3 2025 was 1.357 million metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 123,000 metal tons (YoY + 9.9%); the lead concentrate output was 309,000 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6,000 metal tons (YoY - 2%) [2][12]. - The production guidance has increased marginally, and the TC of lead and zinc mines is under pressure. The total production guidance of sample enterprises in Q3 2025 has increased marginally, with the year - on - year growth rate of production guidance slightly increasing from 4% to 4.1% (accounting for 31.5% of overseas mine production) [3]. - For investment suggestions, in terms of zinc, from a unilateral perspective, zinc prices have stronger upward elasticity, but the opening of the upward space needs further improvement in fundamentals. In terms of arbitrage, short - term spreads are strengthening, and long - spread positions can be held; the logic of short - term internal - external reverse arbitrage is smooth, but inventory risks should be watched out for. In terms of lead, from a unilateral perspective, short positions can continue to be held, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of stopping profits at low levels. In terms of arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see for spreads, and internal - external long - spread arbitrage has a more appropriate profit - loss ratio, but domestic warehouse receipt risks should be watched out for [4][57]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event Overview Recently, overseas leading mining enterprises have basically announced their production and operation in Q3 2025. Only a few mining enterprises have adjusted their production guidance for 2025. This report statistically analyzes the lead and zinc concentrate output and production guidance of 31 overseas leading mining enterprises and forecasts future changes in overseas mines [11]. 3.2 Zinc Mineral Supply Continues to Be Released, and Lead Mine Production Is Slightly Lower Than Expected - Zinc concentrate: The output of overseas sample zinc concentrate in Q3 2025 was 1.357 million metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 123,000 metal tons (YoY + 9.9%) and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 15,000 metal tons (QoQ - 1.1%). The global zinc concentrate output in Q3 2025 was 3.241 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 290,000 metal tons (YoY + 9.8%) [12]. - Lead concentrate: The output of overseas sample lead concentrate in Q3 2025 was 309,000 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6,000 metal tons (YoY - 2%) and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 1,000 metal tons (QoQ - 0.3%). The global lead concentrate output in Q3 2025 was 1.158 million tons, a year - on - year slight decrease of 4,000 metal tons (YoY - 0.4%) [12][14]. - Comparison of different statistical calibers: For zinc, the year - on - year increase in global zinc concentrate output in Q3 2025 mainly comes from overseas leading mining enterprises, and the output of small and medium - sized mining enterprises outside the statistical sample continues to increase, while the reduction in China has expanded. For lead, the year - on - year marginal increase in global lead concentrate output in Q3 2025 mainly comes from China, and the output of overseas samples is basically flat year - on - year [22]. 3.3 Q3 2025 Sub - Mining Enterprise Output Changes and Factor Analysis - Zinc concentrate: The top five companies with year - on - year output increments are Ivanhoe, Vedanta, Glencore, Group Mexico, and Boliden. The top five companies with year - on - year output decreases are Peñoles, HudBay, Teck, South 32, and Volcan [25]. - Lead concentrate: The main sources of year - on - year increments are Newmont, Aurelia Metals, Lundin Mining, Hecla, and South 32. The main sources of year - on - year decrements are Vedanta, Glencore, Teck, Gatos silver, and Peñoles [25]. - Reasons for output growth: Project restart or production increase, improvement in ore grade and recovery rate, and low - base effect of some projects [28]. - Reasons for output decline: Ore grade decline, external force majeure factors, and decline in project operation efficiency [35]. - Smelting: The cumulative year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter zinc ingot output of key overseas smelting projects in Q3 2025 has decreased, and there is still no obvious sign of restart of overseas smelters in the third quarter [47]. 3.4 Annual Zinc Concentrate Production Guidance Increases Marginally The total production guidance of 13 leading mining enterprises in 2025 has increased slightly, with the total output in 2025 ranging from 2.822 million to 3.08 million metal tons (accounting for about 32% of overseas mine production). The year - on - year growth rate of the annual zinc concentrate output of sample enterprises has slightly increased from 4% to 4.1%. The zinc concentrate output in the fourth quarter is expected to increase quarter - on - quarter but decline year - on - year [52][53]. 3.5 TC Views and Investment Suggestions - Zinc concentrate TC: Since August, domestic zinc concentrate TC quotes have gradually decreased. Before the end of the year, TC is more likely to decline with limited space and then tend to oscillate. In the medium term, it is difficult to determine the direction of TC before the Benchmark negotiation next year [55]. - Lead concentrate TC: The rebound space of TC is limited, and in the medium term, the TC of lead concentrate may continue to be under pressure [3][56]. - Investment suggestions: For zinc, pay attention to macro - risks in the short term, and hold long - spread and internal - external reverse - spread positions. For lead, hold short positions in the short term, wait and see for spreads, and pay attention to domestic warehouse receipt risks for internal - external long - spread arbitrage [4][57].