Changjiang Securities·2025-11-23 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking sector [12] Core Insights - The overall market has seen a decline, with a noticeable drop in risk appetite, yet bank stocks have slightly retreated while outperforming the broader market and the ChiNext index, showcasing their defensive attributes [2] - The report highlights a significant focus on the asset quality trends of retail loans, particularly mortgage loans, due to recent fluctuations in housing prices, raising concerns about the ability to cover loan principal [6][40] - The report anticipates that the decision-makers will prioritize financial system stability and risk thresholds, likely implementing policy adjustments to alleviate the pressure on mortgage loan asset quality [6][40] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Longjiang Bank Index fell by 0.9%, but outperformed the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices by 2.9% and 5.3% respectively, indicating a defensive characteristic of bank stocks [19] - State-owned banks have shown notable performance, with early mid-term dividend distributions in December encouraging increased allocations [19] Retail Loan Quality - There has been a rise in retail loan non-performing ratios and amounts among listed banks, reflecting pressures from declining housing prices and household income [6][41] - By June 2025, the non-performing balance of personal loans among sample listed banks increased by 88.3 billion yuan, with significant impacts from mortgage loans and rapidly growing personal business loans [6][41] - Individual banks such as China Communications Bank and China Merchants Bank reported rising retail non-performing ratios, while Ping An Bank showed a decline due to effective risk management and write-offs [7][42] Future Outlook - The report suggests that city commercial banks, like Ningbo Bank, are expected to achieve improvements in retail asset quality by actively adjusting their loan structures [8] - The overall retail risk in the banking sector is anticipated to remain under observation, with potential improvements in overdue rates and non-performing ratios expected in the future [7][41]