东吴证券晨会纪要-20251124

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the main theme of China's economy in 2025 is to respond to changes, influenced by external factors such as fluctuating tariffs and internal factors like asset revaluation and investment growth turning negative [1][4] - For 2026, the focus will shift to maintaining continuity, with reduced uncertainty in macro changes and increased visibility in economic policies. Five key areas of focus include policy continuity, AI-driven supply, consumption upgrades, asset-liability repair, and anti-involution price strategies [1][4] - The expected economic growth rate for 2026 is around 4.9%, with consumption and export growth slightly declining while investment growth is anticipated to improve [1][4] Company Analysis - The report highlights the company "联德股份" as a leading player in the precision casting industry, benefiting from AI-driven demand in cooling and power supply sectors. The company has established long-term partnerships with major global clients [7][8] - The projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the company's revenue and net profit from 2016 to 2024 is 12.7% and 13.3%, respectively, indicating a strong growth trend [7][8] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.2 billion, 3.0 billion, and 4.1 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 38, 28, and 20 times [7][8] Industry Insights - The report emphasizes the high growth in demand for cooling and backup power driven by AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) needs, with the U.S. AIDC cooling component market expected to exceed 10 billion yuan by 2028 [8] - The engineering machinery sector is also projected to recover, with the company positioned to benefit from increased demand starting in 2025 [8] - The company's integrated casting and machining capabilities provide a competitive edge, allowing it to participate deeply in client R&D and design, leading to higher product value and profitability [8]