Orient Securities·2025-11-24 01:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6] Core Viewpoints - The non-ferrous metals sector has experienced a significant decline of 6.75% recently, with a notable single-day drop of 5.26% on November 21. Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have decreased, leading some investors to believe that the sector may continue to face weakness [9][13] - Contrarily, the report suggests that the non-ferrous sector presents a buying opportunity, particularly in segments that have been unfairly punished. The recent downturn was largely influenced by a sharp decline in the lithium carbonate sector, which has created volatility in both commodity and stock markets [9][13] - The electrolytic aluminum sector is highlighted as a defensive play with a high dividend yield of around 6%. The report anticipates demand growth and price increases in 2026, driven by U.S. fiscal expansion and rising industrial metal demand [9][14] - The gold sector is expected to maintain a volatile short-term price trend, but the medium-term outlook remains bullish due to weakening U.S. dollar credit and rising inflation expectations [9][14] Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report emphasizes the need to focus on undervalued segments within the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly electrolytic aluminum and gold, which are expected to rebound [9][13][14] Steel Industry - Steel production has seen a slight decline in iron output, while demand remains strong. The average daily output of iron from 247 steel companies is reported at 236.28 thousand tons, reflecting a minor decrease of 0.25% [15][20] - Social and steel mill inventories are on a downward trend, with total inventory decreasing by 3.01% week-on-week [22] - The profitability of steel products is under pressure due to rising costs, with the price of Australian iron ore increasing by 0.77% and the price of iron concentrate slightly decreasing by 1.02% [25][30] New Energy Metals - In October 2025, China's lithium carbonate production surged by 67.28% year-on-year, reaching 73,420 tons, while hydroxide production saw a slight decline [36][40] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales in October 2025 increasing by 19.94% and 18.65% year-on-year, respectively [40][43] - Prices for lithium and cobalt have risen, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 93,550 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.59% [45][46] Industrial Metals - The report notes a slight decline in metal prices, but they remain at high levels overall. The global refined copper output has increased, although supply growth is lagging behind demand [54]