股指期货：边际现改善信号

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index's weekly decline exceeding that of the week of April 7th. The decline in the market was driven by both external and internal factors. Externally, the Nasdaq had its largest three - week decline since April, and market expectations for a December interest rate cut by the Fed decreased. Concerns about the AI bubble continued, and there were issues in the Japanese market and a decline in Bitcoin. Internally, geopolitical uncertainties and flat policy expectations led to the market's decline following external fluctuations [1]. - Marginally, the Fed started to soothe the market. The probability of a rate cut rebounded, and digital currencies rebounded over the weekend, which is beneficial for the improvement of the global risk - asset environment. For the A - share market, domestic policy directions and Sino - Japanese geopolitical games are important. In an environment where global easing expectations are rising again, there may be buying opportunities on dips if the market continues to fall [2]. - Key factors to watch include domestic policy directions and the Fed's interest rate expectations [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Spot Market Review - Last week, most global stock indexes declined, such as the Shanghai Composite Index (-3.9%), the Nikkei 225 (-3.48%), and the Nasdaq (-2.74%). All major domestic indexes also fell, with the ChiNext Index having the largest decline of -6.15% [1][9][11]. - In the industry of the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indexes, most sectors declined, with the CSI 500 Energy sector having a relatively large decline of -6.71% [14]. 2. Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, the main contract IC of stock index futures had the largest decline, and the main contract IM had the largest amplitude [13]. - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures rebounded [16]. 3. Index Valuation Tracking - As of November 21st, the TTM P/E ratio of the CSI 300 index was 13.87 times, the SSE 50 index was 11.88 times, the CSI 500 index was 31.11 times, and the CSI 1000 index was 44.77 times [17][19]. 4. Market Capital Flow Review - The balance of margin trading in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are presented in the figures, and the capital interest rates remained flat at a low level last week, with the central bank's net investment situation also shown in the figure [22]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels of IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [3]. - Trend strategy: Buy on dips. The core trading ranges of the main contracts IF2510, IH2510, IC2510, and IM2510 are estimated to be 4347 - 4571 points, 2896 - 3030 points, 6668 - 7115 points, and 6881 - 7344 points respectively [3]. - Cross - variety strategy: Mainly stay on the sidelines [4].