锰硅：行情跟踪

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current price of manganese - silicon has limited room to decline further, but it may take some time to reverse the downward trend. It is still recommended to closely monitor the situation of the manganese ore end [2][10][11] Group 3: Summary According to the Content Current Market Situation of Manganese - Silicon - The current manganese - silicon futures price is still oscillating in the range of 5,600 - 6,000 yuan/ton. In the past week, the price has significantly dropped and approached the support level near 5,600 yuan/ton, showing obvious weakness [4] Factors Causing the Price Change - In the November macro - vacuum period, the overseas expectation of a December interest rate cut has significantly weakened, and the market's concern about the "AI narrative" bubble has increased, leading to a significant decline in the prices of US stocks, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals, which in turn has weakened the overall sentiment in the domestic A - share and commodity markets [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission's statement on suspected coal "supply guarantee" during the heating season has led to concerns about the relaxation of coal supply. Coupled with short - term unfalsifiable expectations such as Mongolian coal rushing to meet the quota in the fourth quarter and "poor - quality" coking coal warehouse receipts, funds have significantly increased short positions in coking coal, causing the coking coal price to drop by more than 14% in the past month, suppressing the risk appetite of the entire black metal sector [4] Fundamental Analysis - Although the supply of manganese - silicon has been continuously decreasing recently, the demand remains sluggish, the overall supply - demand structure remains loose, and the inventory of sample factories has continued to accumulate, reaching the highest level in the same period in history [8] - The current cost of manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia is close to 5,800 yuan/ton according to Steel Union statistics and close to 5,700 yuan/ton according to Ferro - Alloys Online statistics. The current futures price of around 5,600 yuan/ton has already reflected the loose fundamentals [8] Outlook for the Future - It is difficult for the current fundamentals to drive the price down significantly. A significant decline would require a macro "black swan" event or a collapse in coal prices similar to that in the first half of this year [2][10] - There is relatively limited room for the current price of manganese - silicon to decline further, but it may take some time to reverse the downward trend [10]