高盛闭门会-中国市场在盘整非慢牛趋势逆转，基于十五五规划的选股策略

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for sectors aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan," highlighting a focus on emerging industries with significant policy support [1][5][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that active investment strategies outperform passive ones, with the past decade's performance of the Chinese Embassy Index at an annualized return of only 2.2%, significantly lower than GDP growth [1][3]. - Emerging industries supported by the Five-Year Plan have yielded an average return of 40% over the past five years, surpassing the CSI 300 Index, which remained flat during the same period [3][5]. - The report identifies 35 sub-industries with a total market capitalization of $13 trillion as investment targets under the "14th Five-Year Plan," based on a detailed analysis of 400 policy-related statements [5][6]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - A flagship investment portfolio has been constructed, consisting of 50 stocks across 21 sectors, including artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, and clean energy, with a growth of 36% over the past year, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 13 percentage points [1][6][8]. - The selection criteria for stocks include growth expectations of over 20% in sales or earnings within two years, a PEG ratio below 2.5, and a focus on high-quality companies [6][7]. Market Opportunities - The report highlights that the Asian market is more susceptible to policy support, with a focus on small to medium-sized tech hardware and semiconductor companies in the onshore market, while offshore markets are directed towards large internet companies and undervalued firms [7][8]. - Domestic consumption is a key priority in the Five-Year Plan, with significant potential in sectors like tourism, entertainment, and new consumption themes, which are expected to benefit from policy backing [9][10]. Policy Impact - The inclusion of anti-pollution measures in the Five-Year Plan is projected to enhance corporate earnings by approximately 1.5% over the next five years, particularly benefiting heavily impacted sectors such as chemicals and metals [11][12]. - The report suggests that the next significant policy clarity will emerge during the March meetings, which will be crucial for adjusting investment strategies [12].