高盛：美联储会在12月降息吗？

Investment Rating - The report indicates uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in December, with a previous expectation of a 75 basis point reduction lacking data support [4][10]. Core Insights - The market has largely priced in the expectation of a rate cut, but confidence is gradually declining, particularly in the AI investment sector, leading to increased short-term uncertainty [1][3]. - Large corporations are increasingly turning to debt financing, which may lead to more leverage in the system and potential corporate imbalances [5]. - The labor market is undergoing adjustments, with a shift from "no hiring, no layoffs" to "no hiring, some layoffs," indicating heightened risks [6]. - Companies are betting on AI to enhance efficiency and productivity, with significant increases in technology budgets, although the effectiveness remains unproven [7][8]. - Different market segments are showing significant performance disparities, with overall economic pressures expected to persist, particularly affecting subprime and low-end consumer markets [9]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is currently hindered by a lack of data, making it difficult to assess labor market risks and inflation dynamics [2][10]. Market Conditions - The current market is in a high-level consolidation phase, with upcoming significant events expected to clarify uncertainties [3]. Corporate Debt Financing - There is a notable trend of large corporations shifting towards debt financing, which may indicate a transition to a more normalized financial environment [5]. Labor Market Trends - Recent layoffs suggest a transition in the labor market, with potential increases in unemployment rates that need to be monitored over the next 3-6 months [6]. AI Investment Trends - Companies are significantly increasing their technology budgets in anticipation of AI-driven efficiency gains, though the long-term impacts remain to be evaluated [7][8]. Economic Segment Performance - The overall economic landscape is under pressure, with specific segments like subprime and low-end consumers facing challenges, while potential improvements depend on inflation and income conditions [9].