能源化工期权：能源化工期权策略早报-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Each sector selects some varieties for option strategy suggestions. Each option variety compiles an option strategy report according to the underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [9]. - The overall strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil SC2601 is 446, with a decrease of 7 and a decline rate of 1.46%, trading volume of 14.15 million lots, an increase of 2.24 million lots, open interest of 4.20 million lots, and an increase of 0.29 million lots [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of various energy - chemical options are provided. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.87, with a change of - 0.03, and the open interest PCR is 0.78, with a change of - 0.00. These indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and whether the underlying market has a turning point [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various energy - chemical options are given. For example, the pressure point of crude oil options is 540, and the support point is 460. These levels are determined from the strike prices where the maximum open interest of call and put options is located [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various energy - chemical options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, its change, annual average, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options is 27.545, and the weighted implied volatility is 29.25, with a change of 2.31 [7]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy - Class Options: Crude Oil - Underlying Market Analysis: The demand of US refineries has stabilized and rebounded. Shale oil production has little fluctuation during the recent oil price decline. OPEC's short - term supply remains flat. Libya's short - term exports have declined but are expected to recover in the next two weeks. The restart of Kuwait's refinery in December weakens the support for low - sulfur fuel oil [8]. - Option Factor Research: The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuates above the average. The open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 540, and the support level is 460 [8]. - Option Strategy Suggestions: - Directional strategy: None. - Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, such as S_SC2601P445, S_SC2601P450, S_SC2601C465, S_SC2601C470. - Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, e.g., LONG_SC2601 + BUY_SC2601P460 + SELL_SC2601C485 [8]. 3.5.2 Energy - Class Options: Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Underlying Market Analysis: US propane has started to draw down inventory, but it is still at a historical high. Crude oil, as the cost end, is affected by both supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical issues. LPG has shown a market trend of an oversold rebound with pressure above [10]. - Option Factor Research: The implied volatility of LPG options has dropped significantly to near the lower - than - average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 4500, and the support level is 4250 [10]. - Option Strategy Suggestions: - Directional strategy: None. - Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy, such as S_PG2601P4200 and S_PG2601C4350. - Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, e.g., LONG_PG2601 + BUY_PG2601P4250 + SELL_PG2601C4350 [10]. 3.5.3 Alcohol - Class Options: Methanol - Underlying Market Analysis: Port inventory is decreasing from a high level, and enterprise inventory is also decreasing. The market has shown a weak downward trend with pressure above [10]. - Option Factor Research: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuates around the historical average. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak and volatile market. The pressure level is 2500, and the support level is 2000 [10]. - Option Strategy Suggestions: - Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread strategy with put options, such as B_MA2601P2025 and S_MA2601P1950. - Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, such as S_MA2601P2075 and S_MA2601C2000. - Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, e.g., LONG_MA2601 + BUY_MA2601P2025 + SELL_MA2601C2150 [10]. 3.5.4 Alcohol - Class Options: Ethylene Glycol - Underlying Market Analysis: Port inventory is expected to slow down in the accumulation rate. Domestic device unexpected maintenance has increased, and overseas arrivals in December are expected to decline. The market has shown a weak downward trend with pressure above [11]. - Option Factor Research: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuates near the lower - than - average level. The open interest PCR is below 0.70, indicating strong bearish power. The pressure level is 4500, and the support level is 4000 [11]. - Option Strategy Suggestions: - Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread strategy with put options, such as B_EG2601P3950 and S_EG2601P3800. - Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility strategy, such as S_EG2601P3850 and S_EG2601C4000. - Spot long - hedging strategy: LONG_EG2601 + BUY_EG2601P3900 + SELL_EG2601C4050 [11]. 3.5.5 Polyolefin - Class Options: Polypropylene - Underlying Market Analysis: The overall inventory pressure of polyolefins is large. The market of polypropylene has shown a weak downward trend with bearish pressure above [11]. - Option Factor Research: The implied volatility of polypropylene options has dropped to near the average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 7000, and the support level is 6300 [11]. - Option Strategy Suggestions: - Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread strategy with put options, such as B_PP2601P6500 and S_PP2601P6300. - Volatility strategy: None. - Spot long - hedging strategy: LONG_PP2601 + BUY_PP2601P6400 + SELL_PP2601C6600 [11]. 3.5.6 Rubber - Class Options: Rubber - Underlying Market Analysis: The operating rate of tire factories has declined. The market has shown a weak consolidation trend with support below and pressure above [12]. - Option Factor Research: The implied volatility of rubber options has decreased to near the lower - than - average level after a rapid increase. The open interest PCR is below 0.60. The pressure level has dropped significantly to 16000, and the support level is 15000 [12]. - Option Strategy Suggestions: - Directional strategy: None. - Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, such as S_RU2601P14500, S_RU2601P14750, S_RU2601C15250, S_RU2601C15500. - Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. 3.5.7 Polyester - Class Options: PTA - Underlying Market Analysis: PTA inventory has increased slightly, but downstream load remains high, and the expected increase in maintenance in November is expected to lead to a phased inventory drawdown. The market has shown a rebound trend with pressure above [12]. - Option Factor Research: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuates above the average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a volatile market. The pressure level is 4700, and the support level is 4300 [12]. - Option Strategy Suggestions: - Directional strategy: None. - Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy, such as S_TA2601P4600, S_TA2601P4650, S_TA2601C4750, S_TA2601C4700. - Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. 3.5.8 Alkali - Class Options: Caustic Soda - Underlying Market Analysis: The average utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity has increased in some regions and decreased in others. The market has shown a weak bearish trend with pressure above [13]. - Option Factor Research: The implied volatility of caustic soda options fluctuates at a relatively high level. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 3000, and the support level is 2200 [13]. - Option Strategy Suggestions: - Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread strategy, such as B_SH2601P2320 and S_SH2601P2200. - Volatility strategy: None. - Spot collar hedging strategy: LONG_SH2601 + BUY_SH2601P2280 + SELL_SH2601C2400 [13]. 3.5.9 Alkali - Class Options: Soda Ash - Underlying Market Analysis: Soda ash factory inventory has decreased. The market has shown a low - level weak consolidation trend with pressure above and support below [13]. - Option Factor Research: The implied volatility of soda ash options fluctuates at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. The pressure level is 1860, and the support level is 1100 [13]. - Option Strategy Suggestions: - Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread strategy, such as B_SA2601P1200 and S_SA2601P1120. - Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy, such as S_SA2601P1160 and S_SA2601C1200. - Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, e.g., LONG_SA2601 + BUY_SA2601P1160 + SELL_SA26011C1240 [13]. 3.5.10 Other Options: Urea - Underlying Market Analysis: Enterprise inventory has decreased, and port inventory is expected to increase. The market has shown a low - level consolidation and gradual rebound trend [14]. - Option Factor Research: The implied volatility of urea options fluctuates slightly around the historical average level. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. The pressure level is 1800, and the support level is 1600 [14]. - Option Strategy Suggestions: - Directional strategy: None. - Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy, such as S_UR2601P1640 and S_UR2601C1680. - Spot hedging strategy: LONG_UR2601 + S_UR2601P1660 + SELL_UR2601C1720 [14].