研究所晨会观点精萃：美联储官员放鸽，提振全球风险偏好-20251124

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The recent market trading logic mainly focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies, the quality of economic growth, and changes in the Fed's monetary policy expectations. The short - term macro upward drive has weakened, with the stock index oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the domestic economic growth situation and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. Different asset classes have different trends and operational suggestions: the stock index and various commodity sectors are in short - term oscillations, and cautious observation is recommended; the national debt is in short - term oscillations, and cautious long - positions are advised [2][3]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Stock Index: Affected by sectors such as lithium - battery, semiconductor chips, and artificial intelligence, the domestic stock market fell sharply. The slowdown of China's economic data in October and the Fed's previous hawkish signals and then dovish remarks have affected market sentiment. The short - term macro upward drive has weakened, and the stock index is in short - term oscillations. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [3]. - Precious Metals: The precious metals market rose slightly on Friday night. Due to the dovish remarks of Fed official Williams, the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut increased. The short - term precious metals are oscillating, and the medium - to - long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term cautious observation and medium - to - long - term buying on dips are recommended [3]. Black Metals - Steel: The domestic steel spot market rebounded slightly on Friday, while the futures price continued to be weak. The LPR rate remained unchanged, and the real demand improved, with the inventory of five major steel products decreasing. The supply increased after the end of environmental protection restrictions in the north. The price does not have the condition for a deep decline, but the short - term upward space is limited. An interval oscillation approach is recommended [4]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore spot price fell slightly on Friday, and the futures trend was relatively strong. The production of five major steel products increased, but the proportion of profitable steel mills decreased. The global iron ore shipment volume increased, and the arrival volume decreased. The port inventory continued to decline. The key factor determining the price is the process of the decline in hot metal production and when it bottoms out. Short - term interval oscillation is expected [5]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Friday, and the futures prices continued to be weak. The demand for ferroalloys was acceptable. The supply of manganese ore was tight, and the prices of raw materials for silicon iron were stable. The operating rates and daily outputs of both decreased. The futures prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the interval [6]. - Soda Ash: Due to the decline in cost - end prices, the soda ash futures contract was weak last week. The supply decreased slightly due to some device overhauls, but the overall supply pressure remained. The demand for heavy soda was stable, and the demand for light soda slightly recovered. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and be bearish in the medium - to - long - term [7]. - Glass: The glass futures contract was weak last week. The glass production decreased due to some device cold repairs, and there is still a cold - repair expectation at the end of the year. The demand weakened, and the inventory increased. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to run weakly in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: Macroscopically, the Fed has internal differences, and the expectation of a December interest rate cut has significantly declined. The US copper inventory is at a historical high, and the domestic refined copper de - stocking is less than expected. The suspension of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine supports the price to some extent. There is a risk of the copper price breaking down in the short term [8][9]. - Aluminum: The price of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated greatly on Friday, affected by the decline in the external market and weak bulk sentiment. Although NVIDIA's performance exceeded expectations, concerns about the AI bubble still exist. The downstream replenished inventory at low prices, but the inventory is still at a high level. The aluminum price may have a large correction [9]. - Tin: The supply has recovered from the overhaul, and the production of Myanmar's Wa State is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the social inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks. The tin price is at a high level, and the downstream purchasing is cautious. In the short - to - medium - term, the tin price has support below but is pressured above, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [10]. - Lithium Carbonate: The production of lithium carbonate has reached a new high, and the ore end is actively raising prices. The current supply and demand are both strong, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. Due to the increase in trading fees and position limits by the exchange and macro - negative impacts, short - term short - selling is recommended, and long - term long - positions should wait for the market to stabilize [11]. - Industrial Silicon: The weekly production has decreased, and the number of open furnaces has decreased. The supply and demand are both weak after the end of the wet season. The cost support has weakened, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate. Interval operation is recommended [11]. - Polysilicon: The inventory is at a high level, and the policy expectation supports the spot price, but the terminal demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in a high - level interval, and interval operation is recommended [12]. Energy and Chemical Industry - Crude Oil: Affected by the decrease in the probability of interest rate cuts and the possible restart of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, the oil price has dropped significantly. The strength of refined oil products may support the oil price. The long - term bearish pressure remains, and short - term attention should be paid to the impact of the interest - rate cut path on risk assets [14]. - Asphalt: The asphalt futures price followed the decline of the oil price. The social and factory inventories are slightly decreasing, but the demand is in the off - season, and the market transaction is sluggish. The profit has increased slightly, and the over - supply pressure is high. Attention should be paid to the recent fluctuations in the oil price [14]. - PX: The overseas refined oil market is strong, and the supply of PX is strongly supported. The PXN spread has slightly rebounded, and PX is still in a tight supply situation. Short - term attention should be paid to the cost of crude oil, overseas oil - blending, and import situations [14]. - PTA: The PTA price has slightly rebounded following PX. The raw material price has increased due to possible impacts on imports from Japan. The downstream demand is more resilient than expected, and the inventory accumulation rate has decreased. It may continue to be in a relatively strong oscillation pattern in the short term [15]. - Ethylene Glycol: The port inventory has significantly increased, the downstream operation rate has decreased, and the supply pressure is high. The futures price is still testing the bottom support, and short - term low - buying is not recommended [15]. - Short - fiber: The short - fiber oscillates following the polyester sector in the short term, but the later pressure is large. The terminal orders are seasonally declining, and the inventory is slightly increasing. Medium - term short - selling following the polyester sector is recommended [15]. - Methanol: The demand has slightly increased, and the inventory has slightly decreased, but the overall inventory pressure is still high. The cost pressure has increased, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [16]. - PP: The contradiction in polypropylene lies in the supply side. The production is increasing, and the demand is expected to weaken with the approach of the traditional off - season. The price is expected to continue to decline [16]. - LLDPE: The core contradiction in the polyethylene market is the continuous accumulation of supply pressure. The downstream demand support will gradually weaken, and the cost support is insufficient. The price is expected to continue to be under pressure [17]. - Urea: The supply of urea remains high, with agricultural demand in the off - season and industrial procurement continuing. The factory inventory is decreasing, and the port inventory is increasing. The cost has strong support. The price is expected to be strong in the long - term but limited in the upward space [17]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The US biodiesel policy news has a negative impact on the US soybean price. Although China's procurement provides some support, there are still doubts about the procurement speed. South American soybean planting is delayed due to irregular rainfall, increasing weather risk pricing [18]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The supply and demand of domestic soybean and soybean meal are loose, with high arrivals, high operation rates, and high inventories. The soybean meal may have a phased correction, and the rapeseed meal is affected by the soybean meal [18]. - Edible Oils: The phased negative factors for edible oils have increased. The supply of domestic soybean oil is strong and the demand is weak, the supply of rapeseed oil is becoming more relaxed, and the export of palm oil has declined. The prices of various edible oils are under pressure [19]. - Corn: Farmers' willingness to sell at low prices is average, and the price is stable. The demand from deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises is different, and the phased bullish logic remains, but the upward space is limited [19]. - Pigs: Although the consumption has increased after the cooling, the supply is still strong and the demand is weak. The price has stabilized recently, but if there is a short - term consumption boost, the selling pressure may increase, and the rebound may not last long [19][20].