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Core Views - The short - term price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly, gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and the price of rebar is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [1][3]. - Coking coal is expected to oscillate, while the LH2601 contract of live pigs is under downward pressure and will adjust weakly [4]. - Palm oil is running weakly after breaking through the support level, and the price of soybean meal's 01 contract will decline and oscillate weakly in the short - term [5]. - The bond market will oscillate slightly more in the medium - term, and silver is bearish in the short - term but bullish in the medium - term [7]. - The 01 contract of methanol is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and the 01 contract of soda ash will run weakly [8][9]. - The L2601 contract of plastic will run weakly in the short - term, and the price of crude oil is weakly running in stages [10][11]. - The asphalt market is weak, and the price of synthetic rubber will oscillate weakly [11][12]. Summary by Variety Iron Ore - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 15,054.65 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 75.06 tons; the daily average port clearance volume is 3.2992 million tons, an increase of 29,700 tons; the number of ships at ports is 120, an increase of 4. Shipping is increasing, and the arrival volume is fluctuating. The molten iron output is expected to decline seasonally, but there is short - term support, and the restocking demand has not been released. The short - term price will oscillate strongly [1]. Gold - Multiple Fed officials signaled interest rate cuts, but due to the lack of employment data, the decision to cut rates is still highly uncertain. Gold is under pressure and may oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [1]. Rebar - As of the week of November 20, rebar production was 2.0796 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 79,600 tons or 3.98%; factory inventory was 1.5332 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71,000 tons or 4.43%; social inventory was 4.0002 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 157,300 tons or 3.78%; apparent demand was 2.3079 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 144,200 tons or 6.66%. The demand has recovered, the fundamentals have improved, but the inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. The price is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [3]. Coking Coal - The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples is 86.9%, a week - on - week increase of 0.7%. The daily average output of raw coal is 1.934 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,000 tons; the daily average output of clean coal is 758,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons. The supply is tight, the demand is weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate [4]. Live Pigs - As of November 21, the average slaughter weight of live pigs is 123.6 kg, an increase of 0.07 kg; the weekly slaughter start - up rate is 34.06%, an increase of 0.11%; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 164.92 yuan per head, a decrease of 43.13 yuan per head; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising is - 81.351 yuan per head, a decrease of 17.42 yuan per head; the price of piglets is 210 yuan per head, an increase of 0.95 yuan per head. The market supply is large, and the LH2601 contract is under downward pressure [4]. Palm Oil - From November 1 - 20, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 7.96% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.45% month - on - month, and the output increased by 10.32% month - on - month. The demand for biodiesel is expected to weaken significantly, and palm oil is running weakly [5]. Soybean Meal - As of November 21, the physical inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises is 7.98 days, a decrease of 0.25 days from the previous period and the same as the same period last year. The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the demand is stable, and the price of the 01 contract will decline and oscillate weakly [5]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - The intensive issuance of treasury bonds is an important manifestation of the continuous implementation of proactive fiscal policies, which may lead to the early implementation of fiscal easing policies next year. The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly more in the medium - term [7]. Silver - The US economic data shows certain resilience, which boosts risk appetite. There are differences in the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in December, but the expectation still exists. Silver is bearish in the short - term and bullish in the medium - term [7]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,000 yuan/ton, and the price is stable. The weekly utilization rate of domestic methanol production capacity is 88.75%, an increase of 1.8%. The downstream utilization rate is 74.77%, a weekly increase of 0.42%. The port inventory has decreased. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [8]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash nationwide is 1,260 yuan/ton, and the price is relatively stable. The weekly output is 739,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02%. The total inventory of manufacturers is 1.7073 million tons, a weekly increase of - 0.4%. The 01 contract is expected to run weakly [9]. Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 6,939 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton from the previous day. The weekly output is 304,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.19%. The production enterprise inventory is 197,700 tons, a weekly decrease of 4.4%. The L2601 contract is expected to run weakly in the short - term [10]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ maintains its stance of increasing production, the global economy and demand are poor, and the new peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have attracted market attention. The price of crude oil is weakly running in stages [11]. Asphalt - The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises is 24.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.2%. The sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises is 370,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.2%. The market is weak, and it is advisable to sell short at high prices [11]. Synthetic Rubber - The output of butadiene in October is 457,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.49%, and the output from January to October is 4.472 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.46%. The import in October is 35,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 35.00%. The supply pressure on the raw material side is increasing, and the demand lacks substantial benefits. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [12].
宁证期货今日早评-20251124
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-11-24 02:14