中辉能化观点-20251124

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish trend continues [1] - PP: Bearish trend continues [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Oscillating at the bottom, cautiously bearish [3] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [3] - LNG: Bullish due to seasonal demand [46] - Asphalt: Cautiously bullish [8] - Glass: Bearish trend continues [7] - Soda Ash: Bearish trend continues [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude Oil: Geopolitical tensions ease, leading to lower oil prices. There is an oversupply in the off - season, and OPEC+ is in an expansion cycle. Pay attention to US shale oil production and geopolitical developments [1][12]. - LPG: Downstream operating rates decline, and inventories accumulate, pressuring LPG prices. The cost side is affected by crude oil trends [1][17]. - L: Domestic supply is abundant, downstream demand is weak, and cost support is insufficient. The bearish trend continues [1][22]. - PP: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are high, demand is weak, and oil prices may continue to fall. The bearish trend persists [1][26]. - PVC: Basis is repaired, but social inventories are high. There is limited room for further price decline due to low valuations [1][30]. - PTA: Supply - side pressure eases, downstream demand is relatively good, but cost pressure exists. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December [3][32]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply pressure is expected to increase, downstream demand is relatively good, but there is a lack of upward drivers. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [3][35]. - Methanol: Supply pressure is large, demand has improved slightly, and the cost side has weak support. It is in an oscillating bottom - grinding stage [3][39]. - Urea: Domestic fundamentals are loose, with high supply and mixed demand. Be wary of downward risks [3][43]. - LNG: As the temperature drops, demand for heating increases, but supply is sufficient, and the upward momentum is weakening [46][48]. - Asphalt: Affected by South American geopolitics, there is short - term support. However, it is in the consumption off - season, and prices may still have room to decline [8][52]. - Glass: Supply has declined, but demand is weak due to the weak real - estate market. The bearish trend continues [7][57]. - Soda Ash: Demand support weakens, and the bearish trend continues [7] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: International oil prices dropped last Friday. WTI decreased by 1.59%, Brent by 2.27%, and SC by 0.44% [11] - Fundamental Logic: Downstream refined - oil profits are good, but there is an oversupply of crude oil. Geopolitical factors also affect prices [12] - Fundamentals: Saudi Arabia's September crude oil exports reached a 7 - month high. OPEC forecasts global crude oil demand growth. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased in the week ending November 14 [13] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the SC price range of [440 - 450] [14] LPG - Market Review: On November 21, the PG main contract closed at 4363 yuan/ton, down 0.43% [16] - Fundamental Logic: It is anchored to the cost of crude oil. Downstream chemical operating rates decline, and inventories accumulate [17] - Strategy Recommendation: Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the PG price range of [4150 - 4250] [18] L - Futures and Spot Market: The L2601 contract closed at 6818 yuan/ton. The basis is - 18 yuan/ton [21] - Fundamental Logic: The basis is repaired, supply is abundant, and downstream demand is weak. Cost support is insufficient [22] - Strategy Recommendation: Partially reduce short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the L price range of [6800 - 6950] [22] PP - Futures and Spot Market: The PP2601 closed at 6429 yuan/ton. The basis is + 28 yuan/ton [25] - Fundamental Logic: The cost side is weak, inventories are high, and demand is weak. Oil prices may continue to fall [26] - Strategy Recommendation: Reduce short positions at low prices. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the PP price range of [6350 - 6500] [26] PVC - Futures and Spot Market: The V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton. The basis is - 76 yuan/ton [29] - Fundamental Logic: The basis is repaired, anti - dumping is unlikely, and export orders increase. Social inventories are high, but there is low - valuation support [30] - Strategy Recommendation: Industries should hedge at high prices. Be cautious about short - chasing. Wait for bullish drivers. Pay attention to the V price range of [4400 - 4550] [30] PTA - Market Data: PTA spot processing fee is 161.6 yuan/ton. Some new devices are put into operation, and some are under maintenance [31][32] - Fundamental Logic: Supply - side pressure eases, demand is relatively good, but the cost side is under pressure. There is an inventory - accumulation expectation in December [32] - Strategy Recommendation: Look for opportunities to go long at low prices [32] Ethylene Glycol - Market Data: The EG01 closed at 3901 yuan/ton. The basis is 40 yuan/ton [34] - Fundamental Logic: Domestic operating loads decline, overseas loads increase slightly. Demand is relatively good, but there is an inventory - accumulation expectation in November [35] - Strategy Recommendation: Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the EG price range of [3760 - 3830] [36] Methanol - Market Data: The main contract's position is 137.1 million lots. The 11 - month import volume is estimated to be about 1.5 million tons [39] - Fundamental Logic: Supply pressure is large, demand improves slightly, and the cost side has weak support [39] - Strategy Recommendation: Gradually close short positions. Look for opportunities to go long on the 05 contract at low prices [39] Urea - Market Data: The UR01 closed at 1654 yuan/ton. Daily production is 202,500 tons [42] - Fundamental Logic: Supply pressure remains, demand is mixed, and inventories are still high. Be wary of downward risks [43] - Strategy Recommendation: Look for opportunities to go short at high prices. Pay attention to the UR price range of [1635 - 1665] [45] LNG - Market Review: On November 21, the NG main contract closed at 4.667 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 1.81% [47] - Fundamental Logic: As the temperature drops, demand increases, but supply is sufficient. US natural gas inventories decreased [48] - Strategy Recommendation: The price is likely to rise but has limited upward space. Pay attention to the NG price range of [4.548 - 4.901] [49] Asphalt - Market Review: On November 21, the BU main contract closed at 3009 yuan/ton, down 1.60% [51] - Fundamental Logic: It is affected by South American geopolitics and crude - oil costs. Supply is abundant, and demand is in the off - season [52] - Strategy Recommendation: Partially close short positions and buy call options. Pay attention to the BU price range of [2950 - 3050] [53] Glass - Futures and Spot Market: The FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton. The basis is 77 yuan/ton [56] - Fundamental Logic: Supply declines, but demand is weak due to the real - estate market [57] - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - to - long term, the bearish trend persists. Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the FG price range of [1000 - 1050] [57] Soda Ash - Fundamental Logic: Demand support weakens, and the bearish trend continues [7][58] - Strategy Recommendation: Partially close short positions at low prices. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term [7]