宏观金融类：文字早评2025/11/24星期一-20251124
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-24 02:26
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market has a certain degree of short - term uncertainty due to previous rises and overseas market adjustments, but the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, with attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [8]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to hold a bottom position and wait and see, with the Fed's easing policy expected to further drive prices in December [10]. - Most non - ferrous metals are expected to be in a state of shock in the short term, with different support and pressure factors [13][15][18]. - The steel market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, but demand may improve with policy implementation [36]. - The energy and chemical market shows different trends, with some products recommended for long - term strategies and others for short - term caution [56][58][60]. - The agricultural product market also has various trends, such as short - term weak operation for some and shock - based operation for others [81][86]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - Market Information: The US government may allow NVIDIA to sell H200 chips to China; the SASAC held a central enterprise specialization integration promotion meeting; Changxin Storage released new DDR5 products; a Goldman Sachs partner said the US stock market may continue to sell off [2]. - Strategy View: After previous rises and influenced by overseas market adjustments, the short - term index is uncertain, but the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - Market Information: The main contracts of TL, T, and TF decreased on Friday, while TS remained unchanged. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates, and the US PMI data showed mixed results. The central bank conducted a net injection of 1622 billion yuan [5]. - Strategy View: The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, with attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [8]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Gold prices rose slightly, and silver prices fell. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index were reported. Fed officials' "dovish" remarks supported precious metal prices [9]. - Strategy View: It is recommended to hold a bottom position and wait and see, with the Fed's easing policy expected to further drive prices in December [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - Market Information: The copper price rebounded after a decline, with LME copper inventory decreasing and domestic spot premiums rising [12]. - Strategy View: The copper price is expected to be in a state of shock in the short term, with strong support at the bottom [13]. Aluminum - Market Information: The aluminum price rebounded after a decline, with domestic and overseas inventory changes and improved downstream procurement sentiment [14]. - Strategy View: The aluminum price is expected to strengthen after an oscillatory adjustment, with strong support [15]. Zinc - Market Information: The zinc price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [16]. - Strategy View: The zinc price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with the zinc industry still in an over - supply cycle [18]. Lead - Market Information: The lead price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [19]. - Strategy View: The lead price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with relatively loose supply [19]. Nickel - Market Information: The nickel price continued to fall, with changes in spot premiums and cost [20]. - Strategy View: The nickel price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [21][22]. Tin - Market Information: The tin price fell slightly, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory. The safety situation in the DRC may affect tin mines [23]. - Strategy View: The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [24]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Information: The carbonate lithium price fell, with changes in spot and futures prices [25]. - Strategy View: It is recommended to pay attention to potential disturbances and the reference range of the main contract [26]. Alumina - Market Information: The alumina price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [28]. - Strategy View: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with attention to supply - side policies [29]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless steel price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and cost [30]. - Strategy View: The stainless steel price is expected to continue to decline weakly, with an over - supply situation [30]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The cast aluminum alloy price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [31]. - Strategy View: The price is expected to be in a state of shock in the short term [33]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - Market Information: The steel price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [35]. - Strategy View: The steel price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, but demand may improve with policy implementation [36]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The iron ore price fell slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [37]. - Strategy View: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate within a range, with strong supply and stable demand [38][39]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: The glass price fell, and the soda ash price fell. There were changes in inventory and basis [40][41]. - Strategy View: The glass price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the soda ash price is expected to be weakly volatile [40][41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: The manganese silicon price fell, and the ferrosilicon price rose slightly. There were changes in inventory and basis [42]. - Strategy View: It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and price, and to look for opportunities to rebound [44][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: The industrial silicon price fell, and the polysilicon price rose slightly. There were changes in inventory and basis [46][49]. - Strategy View: The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate, and the polysilicon price is expected to oscillate within a wide range [48][50]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - Market Information: The rubber price oscillated and adjusted, with changes in tire factory start - up rates and inventory [52][54]. - Strategy View: It is recommended to have a bullish strategy with stop - loss settings and partial hedging [56]. Crude Oil - Market Information: The crude oil price fell, and there were changes in refined oil prices and inventory [57]. - Strategy View: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and test OPEC's export price - support willingness [58]. Methanol - Market Information: The methanol price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [59]. - Strategy View: The methanol price is expected to continue to decline weakly, with high inventory pressure [60]. Urea - Market Information: The urea price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [61]. - Strategy View: The urea price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The pure benzene price was unchanged, and the styrene price rose. There were changes in inventory and basis [62]. - Strategy View: The styrene price may stop falling in stages, with cost and demand factors [63]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC price was unchanged, with changes in inventory and basis [64]. - Strategy View: The PVC price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to go short in the medium term [66]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The ethylene glycol price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [67]. - Strategy View: The ethylene glycol price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to go short in the medium term [68]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [69]. - Strategy View: The PTA price is expected to be affected by supply, demand, and valuation factors [71]. Para - Xylene - Market Information: The para - xylene price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [72]. - Strategy View: The para - xylene price is expected to have a risk of valuation correction, with high supply and low demand [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: The PE price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [74]. - Strategy View: The PE price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with cost and demand factors [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: The PP price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [77]. - Strategy View: The PP price is expected to be affected by cost and demand factors, and may be supported in the first quarter of next year [78]. Agricultural Products Category Pig - Market Information: The pig price fluctuated, with normal supply and limited demand [80]. - Strategy View: It is recommended to go short on the near - month contract or do reverse spreads [81]. Egg - Market Information: The egg price was stable with partial increases, with reduced inventory pressure and increased replenishment willingness [82]. - Strategy View: The egg price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to go short after a rebound in the medium term [83][84]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: The soybean meal price was stable, with changes in import cost, inventory, and demand [85]. - Strategy View: The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate, with cost support and pressure on crushing margins [86]. Edible Oils - Market Information: The edible oil price fell, with weak palm oil export data and high supply [87]. - Strategy View: The palm oil price is recommended to be viewed with an oscillatory perspective, and turn to a bullish strategy if production decreases [88][89]. Sugar - Market Information: The sugar price fell, with an expected global surplus in the 2025/26 season and increased imports [90][91]. - Strategy View: It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then go short [91]. Cotton - Market Information: The cotton price oscillated narrowly, with changes in production, inventory, and demand [92][93]. - Strategy View: The cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with no strong driving force [94].