国新国证期货早报-20251124

Overall Market Performance - On November 21, 2025, A-share market slumped with Shanghai Composite Index down 2.45% to 3834.89, Shenzhen Component Index down 3.41% to 12538.07, and ChiNext Index down 4.02% to 2920.08. The trading volume reached 1965.7 billion yuan, up 257.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - CSI 300 Index closed at 4453.61 on November 21, down 111.34 from the previous day [2] Commodity Futures Coking Coal and Coke - On November 21, the weighted index of coke closed at 1658.8, down 17.2 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal closed at 1136.2 yuan, down 10.8 from the previous day [2][3] - Coke supply shrank due to low industry profits and weak production motivation of coke enterprises. Demand from steel mills was limited as terminal demand weakened. Coking coal supply slowly recovered with some mines resuming production, and Mongolian coal imports increased. However, coke enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm declined [4] Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures and options net short positions increased by 3,861 to 142,589 as of the week ending October 7. Zhengzhou sugar futures contract 2601 declined due to short - selling pressure on the night of November 21 [4] Rubber - Shanghai rubber futures declined on the night of November 21 due to short - selling pressure. As of November 21, natural rubber inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 79,463 tons to 78,675 tons, and futures warehouse receipts decreased by 68,871 tons to 39,600 tons. 20 - grade rubber inventory increased by 302 tons to 53,827 tons, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 504 tons to 50,199 tons [4] Live Pigs - On November 21, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11,350 yuan/ton, down 0.79%. In October, the inventory of breeding sows decreased by 1.1% to 39.9 million, still above the reasonable target. The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, with supply pressure from large - scale farms' concentrated sales and some support from increased consumption demand in winter [4][5] Soybean Meal - CBOT soybean futures rose 0.31% on November 21. US soybean exports faced competition from Brazil. In the domestic market, the M2601 main contract closed at 3012 yuan/ton on November 21, down 0.17%. Short - term supply was sufficient, and the market was under pressure due to abundant imports [5] Copper - The Shanghai copper market showed weak oscillation with decreasing positions. In the short term, it remained in high - level oscillation. In the long term, new demand from new energy and AI and rigid shortage of global copper ore supply may push up the copper price, but short - term fluctuations due to policy changes and capital withdrawal should be watched out for [5] Logs - On November 21, the log 2601 contract opened at 772, with a low of 768, a high of 774.5, and closed at 768.5, with an increase of 896 lots. The spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable at 750 yuan/cubic meter. In October, log imports decreased by 16.3% year - on - year [5][6] Iron Ore - On November 21, the iron ore 2601 main contract closed down 0.32% at 785.5 yuan. Iron ore shipments increased slightly, arrivals decreased, and port and steel mill inventories declined. Iron ore prices were in an oscillating trend in the short term [6] Asphalt - On November 21, the asphalt 2601 main contract closed down 0.46% at 3009 yuan. Asphalt supply continued to decline, inventory decreased, and shipments increased slightly. However, demand was limited by cold and snowy weather, and prices showed an oscillating trend in the short term [6] Cotton - On the night of November 21, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13,595 yuan/ton, with inventory decreasing by 1259 lots. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang on November 21 was 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg [7] Steel - The steel market was suppressed by the low probability of Fed rate - cut in December and the lack of domestic policies. The economic work conference in December was a key event. The market was in a supply - demand re - balancing stage, with limited downward and upward space. Steel mills' winter storage demand would emerge in late December, but the scale might be smaller than last year [7] Alumina - Alumina raw material supply may gradually become sufficient as bauxite shipments from Guinea increased after the rainy season. Supply was relatively abundant, while demand was stable but weaker compared to supply [7] Aluminum - The cost of raw material alumina decreased, and smelters' profits were good, leading to high production enthusiasm. Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply would remain high. Demand was gradually entering the off - season, but spot market transactions improved slightly as aluminum prices declined [7]