格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20251124

1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the vegetable oil market shows a differentiated trend, with rapeseed oil being the strongest, soybean oil oscillating, and palm oil being the weakest. Given the breakdown of palm oil prices, it is advisable to short at high levels. For the protein sector, the prices of double - meal on the futures market have stopped falling, and it is recommended to stage new long positions [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock - Three Oils 3.1.1 Market Review On November 21, affected by the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil and poor palm oil import data from India, palm oil prices broke down, dragging down the overall decline of domestic vegetable oils. The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts showed different trends, with some rising and some falling [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - On November 21, NYMEX crude oil futures fell about 1%, hitting a one - month low. - The US government is considering delaying the proposed plan to cut subsidies for imported biofuels by one to two years. - Brazil may not be able to increase the biodiesel blending ratio from 15% to 16% by March 2026. - From November 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 10.32% month - on - month, while exports decreased by 14.1%. - In October, India's palm oil imports dropped to a five - month low, and the imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 16% to 7.56 million tons, a five - year low. - As of the 46th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.4117 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27% and a year - on - year increase of 8.44% [1][2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic Externally, the push for peace in Russia - Ukraine by the US has put pressure on international crude oil prices. The反复 US biodiesel policy, poor Indian palm oil import data, and high palm oil production in Southeast Asia have led to concerns about inventory pressure, causing the breakdown of Malaysian palm oil prices. Domestically, the sufficient supply of vegetable oil raw materials and good inventory levels have weakened the basis of soybean oil. However, due to continuous losses in import and crushing profits, oil mills may increase prices. The poor export data of Malaysian palm oil has dragged down domestic palm oil prices. The zero inventory of domestic rapeseed and the decline in rapeseed oil inventory have made rapeseed oil the strongest among the three oils [1][2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Liquidate all previous long positions in palm oil and short at high levels. Adopt an oscillating mindset for soybean oil and be bullish on rapeseed oil. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [1][2]. - Arbitrage trading: No arbitrage opportunities are recommended at present [1][2]. 3.2 Two - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review On November 21, the protein sector showed a differentiated trend, with rapeseed meal being strong and soybean meal being weak. The closing prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts showed different trends, with some rising and some falling [2][3]. 3.2.2 Important Information - In 2026, the US soybean planting area is expected to increase by 4%. - China has resumed the soybean import licenses of three US companies since November 10. - As of November 13, the sowing of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop was 71% complete. - StoneX predicts that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production may reach 178.9 million tons. - Brazil's soybean exports in November are expected to reach 4.71 million tons, a 101% increase from last year. - There are rumors that COFCO has purchased 9 ships of Australian rapeseed. - As of the 45th week of 2025, the domestic imported soybean inventory decreased by 393,000 tons, the soybean meal inventory increased by 30,000 tons, and the imported rapeseed inventory remained at zero [2][3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic Externally, the reduced expectation of Chinese demand has put pressure on US soybean prices. Domestically, due to continuous losses in oil mill crushing profits, there may be a demand to increase prices, and the downward space for soybean meal is limited. The zero inventory of rapeseed has led to the shutdown of oil mills, and the rapeseed meal inventory is only 200 tons. The prices of double - meal on the futures market have stopped falling, and the low prices have attracted buyers, so the downward space is limited [2][3]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Long positions can be established in the far - month 2605 and 2607 contracts of soybean meal, and a small number of new long positions can be entered in rapeseed meal. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [3].