工业硅&多晶硅日评20251124：上方承压-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon market currently maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, and with the concentrated cancellation of futures warehouse receipts this month, there is still pressure on the upside of silicon prices. Attention should be paid to the subsequent registration of new warehouse receipts and the actual start - up of silicon enterprises [1] - For polysilicon, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is limited, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to continue to rise, which restricts the upside space of the futures market. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the polysilicon platform and the evolution of the macro - sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price Information: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,800 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.27% to 8,960 yuan/ton [1] - Production and Supply: From November 14 - 20, the weekly output of sample silicon enterprises in Sichuan was 4,690 tons, with a weekly start - up rate of 40%. Excluding large factories, the start - up rate of the remaining silicon enterprises was around 12%. Sichuan will enter the dry season at the end of November, and the start - up rate will further decline. The weekly output of sample silicon factories in Xinjiang was 41,090 tons, with a weekly start - up rate of 85%, remaining stable compared to last week [1] - Investment Strategy: Adopt an interval operation strategy [1] Polysilicon - Price Information: N - type dense material remained flat at 51 yuan/kg, N - type recycled material remained flat at 52.30 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material remained flat at 50.50 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained flat at 50.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 1.73% to 53,360 yuan/ton [1] - Production and Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain a production - reduction trend, and some silicon material factories may have new capacity put into production. After offsetting, it is expected that the output will still increase slightly in October and decrease to around 120,000 tons in November [1] - Investment Strategy: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy [1] Other Product Prices - Silicon Wafer Prices: The price of N - type 210mm decreased by 0.62% to 1.59 yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210R remained flat at 1.27 yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 183mm remained flat at 1.26 yuan/piece [1] - Battery Cell Prices: The price of single - crystal PERC battery cells M10 - 182mm remained flat at 0.27 yuan/watt [1] - Component Prices: The prices of various single - crystal PERC components remained unchanged [1] - Organic Silicon Prices: The prices of DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil remained unchanged [1]