Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US employment data shows significant divergence, and the performance of NVIDIA's AI business has restored market risk appetite. The Fed's October meeting minutes revealed serious differences, and the change of the October non - farm report schedule has led to a lack of key data for the December interest - rate decision. Domestically, the economic fundamentals are cooling marginally, but the policy remains firm, and the market's expectation of policy intensification is rising [2]. - The spot pressure of the container shipping European line continues, and the futures price fluctuates lower. The market is currently mixed with long and short factors, and the short - term volatility may intensify. It is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term [8][9][10]. - For precious metals, the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and it is expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. Although the medium - and long - term prices are expected to rise, the short - term trend is unclear [14][15][17]. - For copper, the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and the driving force for copper price increase weakens. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [86000, 87000] [18][20][21]. - For the aluminum industry chain, aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, alumina is expected to run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate at a high level [22]. - Zinc is expected to oscillate narrowly, and the nickel - stainless steel market should be wary of callbacks in the unilateral downward range and pay attention to option opportunities [22][24][25]. - Tin is expected to oscillate narrowly, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25][26]. - The risk of a decline in lithium carbonate prices still exists, and the near - month contracts are under pressure. It is expected to show a "wide - range shock and weak" operating characteristic in the range of 83000 - 93000 yuan/ton in the next two weeks [27]. - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon are weak, and they are expected to oscillate widely. The industrial silicon futures price is likely to maintain an oscillating and weak pattern in the short term [27][28][29]. - Lead is expected to oscillate, and there is support below [30]. - For steel products, the overall finished products are supported by raw material costs below, but the upward drive is suppressed by inventory. It is expected to oscillate in the range, with rebar in the range of 2900 - 3200 and hot - rolled coil in the range of 3100 - 3400 [31][32]. - Iron ore prices continue to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait for the basis to repair and the market sentiment to improve before considering shorting at high prices [33][34]. - For coking coal and coke, the support for coking coal is loosening, and the expectation of price cuts is increasing. The coking coal 01 contract is under pressure in the short term, while the 05 contract has medium - and long - term long - allocation potential [34][35]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [36][37]. - The crude oil market is affected by macro and geopolitical negatives, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65 in the short and medium term [38][39][40]. - The valuation of LPG is being repaired, and attention should be paid to the profit of PDH and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine issue [41][42]. - For PTA - PX, the speculation on blending for oil is weakening. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans and the actual dynamics of blending for oil. Consider short - term callbacks and long - term positions [42][43][45]. - For MEG - bottle chips, it is too early to bottom - fish, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling call options on rebounds [46][47][48]. - The upward height of methanol 01 is limited. It is recommended to hold the previous short - call positions and consider 12 - 1 and 1 - 5 reverse spreads [48][49]. - The downward space of PP is limited, and it is expected to maintain a low - level shock pattern [50][52][53]. - PE is expected to continue the low - level shock pattern, and a selling option strategy can be considered [54][55][56]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the market sentiment is significantly boosted in the short term, but the domestic pure benzene fundamentals are still weak. Do not chase high prices in the medium and long term [56][57][58]. - For fuel oil, the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking has rebounded after a sharp decline, but it is still bearish in the future; the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weakening, and it is recommended to wait and see [58][59]. - The bottom space of asphalt is not large, and attention should be paid to the winter storage policy. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [60][61]. - Rubber and 20 - rubber fell after reaching the upper limit of the range, and attention should be paid to the revision of the 20 - rubber futures contract and delivery rules [61]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: Domestic policies remain firm. Overseas, the US employment data is divided, and the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts is inconsistent. The market is concerned about the November employment data and the appointment of the Fed chairman. The RMB exchange rate is expected to "oscillate and build a bottom, with the center slowly declining" [1][2][3]. - Stock Index: The dovish remarks of Fed officials have increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, which may support the stock index in the short term. However, due to the tense Sino - Japanese relations and the lack of policy news, the stock index is expected to oscillate [4][5]. - Treasury Bonds: The mid - term long positions should be held. Although there are some negative factors, the impact on the bond market is mainly short - term sentiment, and the substantial negative impact is limited [6]. - Container Shipping European Line: The spot index has weakened again, and the shipping companies' price - holding efforts have not been effective. The market is mixed with long and short factors, and it is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term [8][9][10]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Gold & Silver: The uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and the precious metals are expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. The long - term price is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to the 60 - day moving average [14][15][17]. - Copper: The uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and the driving force for copper price increase weakens. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and it is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [18][20][21]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, alumina is expected to run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision and the fundamentals of each link [21][22]. - Zinc: It is expected to oscillate narrowly. The reduction of TC in November has increased the willingness of smelters to cut production, and the inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to exports and the macro situation [22][23][24]. - Nickel, Stainless Steel: They are in a unilateral downward range, and attention should be paid to callbacks and option opportunities. The cost of nickel - iron has collapsed, and the downstream demand for stainless steel is weak [24][25]. - Tin: It is expected to oscillate narrowly. The supply of concentrates is tight, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25][26]. - Lithium Carbonate: The risk of a decline still exists, and the near - month contracts are under pressure. The supply of lithium ore is expected to increase, and the downstream demand may decline seasonally [27]. - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: The fundamentals are weak, and they are expected to oscillate widely. The industrial silicon futures price is likely to follow the price fluctuations of related varieties and maintain an oscillating and weak pattern [27][28][29]. - Lead: It is expected to oscillate, and there is support below. The raw materials for smelting are tight, and the cost of recycled lead provides support [30]. Black Metals - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: They are expected to oscillate in the range, with the lower limit supported by raw material costs and the upper limit suppressed by inventory. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking speed and downstream consumption [31][32]. - Iron Ore: The price continues to oscillate widely. The decline of coking coal price may support the iron ore price. It is recommended to wait for the basis to repair before shorting at high prices [33][34]. - Coking Coal & Coke: The support for coking coal is loosening, and the expectation of price cuts is increasing. The coking coal 01 contract is under pressure in the short term, while the 05 contract has medium - and long - term long - allocation potential [34][35]. - Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese: They are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand. The production is expected to decline, and de - stocking may depend on production cuts [36][37]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The market is affected by macro and geopolitical negatives, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65 in the short and medium term. Attention should be paid to the changes in macro and geopolitical factors [38][39][40]. - LPG: The valuation is being repaired. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand for PDH is in a loss state. Attention should be paid to the profit and the Russia - Ukraine issue [41][42]. - PTA - PX: The speculation on blending for oil is weakening. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans and the actual dynamics of blending for oil. Consider short - term callbacks and long - term positions [42][43][45]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: It is too early to bottom - fish, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling call options on rebounds. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is stable in the short term [46][47][48]. - Methanol: The upward height of 01 is limited. The port pressure is increasing, and the inland is de - stocking. It is recommended to hold short - call positions and consider reverse spreads [48][49]. - PP: The downward space is limited, and it is expected to maintain a low - level shock pattern. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand growth is slowing down [50][52][53]. - PE: It is expected to continue the low - level shock pattern. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak, especially with the end of the agricultural film peak season. A selling option strategy can be considered [54][55][56]. - Pure Benzene & Styrene: The market sentiment is significantly boosted in the short term, but the domestic pure benzene fundamentals are still weak. Do not chase high prices in the medium and long term [56][57][58]. - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking has rebounded after a sharp decline, but it is still bearish in the future; the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weakening, and it is recommended to wait and see [58][59]. - Asphalt: The bottom space is not large, and attention should be paid to the winter storage policy. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply has decreased, and the demand is gradually weakening [60][61]. - Rubber & 20 - Rubber: They fell after reaching the upper limit of the range. Attention should be paid to the revision of the 20 - rubber futures contract and delivery rules [61].
南华期货早评-20251124
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-24 02:42