五矿期货农产品早报-20251124

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soybean and Soybean Meal: Global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, and the bottom of import cost may have emerged, but upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybeans have high inventory, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate [2][4]. - Palm Oil: The over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market, but recent improvement in exports provides support. It is advisable to view it with an oscillatory perspective and turn bullish if production decline signals appear [6][8]. - Sugar: The market expects an increase in production in the northern hemisphere in the 2025/26 season, with limited upward space for raw sugar. It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then short [11][12]. - Cotton: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the previous price decline has digested the bearish impact of high yields. Cotton prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [15][16]. - Eggs: Before the spot price realizes seasonal increases, the futures market is expected to oscillate. In the medium - term, after the stocking period, focus on supply and wait for a rebound to short [17][18]. - Pigs: Supply pressure remains high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [20][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal - Market Information: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans first fell and then rose, supported by Chinese purchases. Brazilian soybean premiums decreased slightly last week, and the cost of imported soybeans declined. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable over the weekend, and trading and pick - up were good last week. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.3173 million tons, slightly lower than last week's 2.3344 million tons. The feed enterprise inventory days decreased to 7.98 days last week [2]. - Strategy: Global soybean supply has decreased, and the bottom of import cost may have appeared. Domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate [4]. Palm Oil - Market Information: From November 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased compared to the previous month, and production showed a mixed trend. Domestic vegetable oil prices are expected to be weak. Last Friday, domestic palm oil prices fell, and the spot basis was stable [6]. - Strategy: Over - expected production suppresses the market, but improved exports provide support. It is advisable to view it with an oscillatory perspective and turn bullish if production decline signals appear [8]. Sugar - Market Information: On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices oscillated and declined. The international sugar market is expected to have a surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 2025/26 season. China's sugar imports increased in 2025. India's sugar production increased significantly this year [10][11]. - Strategy: The market expects an increase in production in the northern hemisphere in the 2025/26 season, with limited upward space for raw sugar. It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then short [12]. Cotton - Market Information: On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated narrowly. The global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase. China's cotton imports decreased in 2025, and the spinning mill's operating rate decreased slightly [14][15]. - Strategy: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the previous price decline has digested the bearish impact of high yields. Cotton prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [16]. Eggs - Market Information: Egg prices were stable over the weekend, with some local increases. Supply pressure remains, but inventory pressure has eased after the temperature drop, and downstream replenishment willingness has increased [17]. - Strategy: Before the spot price realizes seasonal increases, the futures market is expected to oscillate. In the medium - term, after the stocking period, focus on supply and wait for a rebound to short [18]. Pigs - Market Information: Pig prices fluctuated over the weekend. Supply is normal, and terminal demand is limited, so pig prices are expected to be stable today with some local adjustments [20]. - Strategy: Supply pressure remains high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [21].