Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The cotton is likely to continue its oscillatory trend in the short term. The core logics are that the current Sino-US trade relations have eased, presenting a positive macro environment; there is a strong expectation of a bountiful cotton supply this year, and the subsequent hedging pressure will be significant as the cost gradually stabilizes; the downstream market shows a lukewarm performance, with enterprises' finished product inventories in a healthy state and a rigid demand for cotton [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On the 20th local time, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released an employment report. The US added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly higher than the market expectation of 50,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in August to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. The non-farm employment data shows that the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is low, but currently, most Fed officials support a December rate cut. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the probability of a "25-basis-point rate cut" in December has risen to over 70% [2]. 2. Fundamental Analysis Commercial Inventory - As of November 15, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.6397 million tons, an increase of 709,100 tons from half a month ago. The total inventory in Xinjiang was 2.9346 million tons, an increase of 593,800 tons; the total inventory in the inland was 377,100 tons, an increase of 278,800 tons; the bonded warehouse cotton inventory was 328,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons. The current commercial cotton inventory is at the highest level in the same period in history, and it is expected to remain at this high level in the next few months [2]. Industrial Inventory - As of November 15, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 931,400 tons, an increase of 59,400 tons, and an increase of 43,200 tons from the end of last month. The disposable cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 1.0875 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 99,840 tons, and an increase of 20,800 tons from the end of last month. The yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.35 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.7 days and an increase of 0.23 days from the end of last month. The grey cloth inventory was 31.12 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.71 days and a decrease of 0.85 days from the end of last month. Currently, the finished product inventory of textile enterprises is in a healthy state, and the stable operating rate creates a rigid demand for cotton consumption [2]. 3. One - Week Data Overview - As of November 21, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,460 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week, with a gain of 0.07%. The cotton spot price index was 14,796 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week, with a decline of 0.07%. The main contract price of ICE cotton futures was 61.85 cents/pound, down 0.65 cents/pound from last week, with a decline of 1.04%. The NYMEX crude oil price was 57.98 dollars/barrel, down 1.97 dollars/barrel from last week, with a decline of 3.29%. The Shanghai gold main contract was 926.94 yuan/gram, down 26.26 yuan/gram from last week, with a decline of 2.75% [4][6]. 4. Domestic Market Basic Situation Raw Material Price Index - On November 21, the price center of raw materials showed mixed trends compared with last week. The short - fiber main contract closed at 6,162 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton from last week, with a decline of 1.22%. The cotton main contract closed at 13,460 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week, with a gain of 0.07%. The cotton spot 3128B market price was 14,796 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week, with a decline of 0.07% [10]. Domestic Cotton Yarn Price - On November 21, the price center of domestic yarns moved slightly higher compared with last week. The price of OEC10S airflow - spun yarn remained unchanged at 14,670 yuan/ton. The price of C32S carded yarn was 20,440 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from last week, with a gain of 0.59% [12]. Imported Yarn Price - On November 21, the price center of foreign yarns denominated in US dollars moved slightly lower compared with last week, and the price center of foreign yarns denominated in RMB declined. For example, the FCYIndexJC32S arrival price in US dollars was 2.64 dollars/kg, down 0.01 dollars/kg from last week, with a decline of 0.38%. The FCYIndexJC32S port pick - up price in RMB was 22,840 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from last week, with a decline of 0.26% [15][19]. Cotton Price Spread - On November 21, the spread between domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128B and FCindex sliding - duty port pick - up price was 953 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened. The spread between Zhengzhou cotton main contract and FCindex sliding - duty port pick - up price was - 383 yuan/ton, up 87 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread narrowed. The spread between Zhengzhou cotton main contract and ICE main contract under tariff was 514 yuan/ton, up 111 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened. The spread between Zhengzhou cotton main contract and ICE main contract's converted disk price was 3,451 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened [23][25]. Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - As of November 21, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 3,456, a decrease of 1,579 from last week. Among them, the total number of warehouse receipts was 2,244, a decrease of 2,157 from last week, and the total number of effective forecasts was 1,221, an increase of 578 from last week [28]. Zhengzhou Cotton Futures - Spot Price Spread - As of November 21, the spread between Zhengzhou cotton main contract and CCI3128B spot price index was - 1,336 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread narrowed [30]. Cotton Inventory - As of November 15, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.6397 million tons, an increase of 709,100 tons from half a month ago. As of October 31, the monthly cotton import volume was 90,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from last month, with a decline of 10%, and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons, with a decline of 18.18% [33][35]. Cotton Inspection Volume - As of November 20, the Xinjiang cotton inspection volume was 3.3915 million tons, the inland cotton inspection volume was 14,900 tons, and the national cotton inspection volume was 3.4064 million tons [38]. Cotton Textile Industry PMI - As of the end of October, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of China's cotton textile industry was 52.66%, up 8.37 percentage points from last month, and it returned above the boom - bust line for the first time in seven months since March this year [40]. 5. Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis Macroeconomic Situation - The US federal government shutdown ended, which is expected to have a negative impact on the US economy in the fourth quarter. The market is currently focused on the Fed's possible interest rate cut in December, and the decision will depend on factors such as inflation and the employment market [41]. Cotton Inventory - As of the end of October 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.9306 million tons, an increase of 1.9089 million tons from last month, with an increase rate of 186.84%, higher than the same period last year. The cotton industrial inventory of textile enterprises showed a stable - to - increasing trend [41]. Market Price and Supply - Demand - As of November 14, the CRB commodity price index declined slightly, and the ICE cotton futures main contract price fell. The latest global cotton supply - demand report was bearish. In the short term, cotton prices may be under pressure and show a weak trend [41].
增产预期叠加下游转淡，郑棉主力承压显著
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )·2025-11-24 02:42