期货策略周报：风险进一步释放-20251124

Overall Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Recently, the commodity market has witnessed a resonance decline. The coal price has dropped due to supply guarantees, and the expectation of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has driven down the prices of precious metals and crude oil. Under this background, the energy and chemical sectors, as well as precious metals, have led the decline [2][5]. - Coking coal remains within the anti - involution framework, and shorting it too aggressively is not advisable. Crude oil prices are at a relatively low level, so shorting should be done with caution. The oilseeds and oils sector is expected to fluctuate and does not have the ability to rise continuously [2][5]. - After the current adjustment, some varieties with good fundamentals, such as the oil and polyester sectors, can be considered for rebound trading. Alternatively, selling deep - out - of - the - money put options can be considered [2][5]. Market Conditions Summary General Market Conditions - This week, the commodity market as a whole has shown a continuous weakening trend, with a resonance decline across various sectors, including agricultural products [4]. Sector - specific Conditions - Non - ferrous Metals: Non - ferrous metals have fallen from high levels, with aluminum and nickel leading the decline, which is a manifestation of their financial attributes against the backdrop of the continuous weakening of precious metals. However, due to capacity issues in copper mines and electrolytic aluminum, the market is expected to fluctuate after the adjustment [4]. - Agricultural Products: The purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans this year cannot solve the problem of oversupply of US soybeans. The global soybean price does not have an environment for continuous increase. It is not recommended to chase high prices of US soybeans or domestic soybean meal. Instead, investors should view the market from a fluctuating perspective and wait for the adjustment to end before considering buying at low prices [4]. - Energy and Chemical Sector: Under the expectation of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, crude oil prices have continued to weaken. Coupled with the decline in domestic coal prices, the energy and chemical sector as a whole is under pressure. However, the valuations of varieties such as methanol and PVC are significantly low, and the value of shorting is limited [4]. - Black Sector: Against the background of the National Development and Reform Commission's coal supply guarantee, coking coal has shown weakness, but its downward space is limited and remains within the anti - involution framework. The overall valuation of rebar is also low [4]. Data Tables Capital Flow in Sectors - The total capital flow is - 10.83 billion yuan, with - 4.139 billion yuan in precious metals, - 5.096 billion yuan in non - ferrous metals, 0.049 billion yuan in the black sector, 0.13 billion yuan in the energy sector, - 0.298 billion yuan in the chemical sector, - 0.44 billion yuan in the feed and breeding sector, - 0.812 billion yuan in the oilseeds and oils sector, and 0.204 billion yuan in the soft commodity sector. The corresponding percentage changes are - 29.5%, - 51.3%, - 86.2%, 1.1%, 8.7%, - 9.3%, - 21.1%, - 18.0%, and 12.3% respectively [9]. Weekly Data of Black and Non - ferrous Metals - Data such as price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis are provided for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, coking coal, etc. [9] Weekly Data of Energy and Chemical Products - Similar data is provided for energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. [11] Weekly Data of Agricultural Products - Data for agricultural products, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc., are presented [12]