——流动性和机构行为周度观察：资金面先紧后松，存单利率下行受阻-20251124

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From November 17 to 21, 2025, the central bank conducted net 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and had 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits mature. The government bond net payment scale decreased slightly in the week of November 17 - 23 compared to the previous week. The yield of maturing inter - bank certificates of deposit (ICDs) remained stable overall, and the average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was basically stable. The estimated median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds decreased by 0.60 years and 0.20 years respectively on a weekly basis as of November 21, 2025 [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Funding Situation - Central Bank Operations: From November 17 to 21, 2025, the central bank conducted 167.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 112.2 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 55.4 billion yuan, and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits matured. From November 24 to 28, 112.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases will mature, 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits will be operated on the 24th, and 90 billion yuan of medium - term lending facilities (MLF) will mature on the 25th [6]. - Funding Rate Fluctuations: From November 17 to 21, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.43% and 1.49% respectively, up 0.9 and 1.9 basis points compared to November 10 - 14. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.50% and 1.52% respectively, up 0.8 and 1.5 basis points compared to November 10 - 14. The funding rate was high at the beginning of the week and then decreased, mainly due to factors such as high government bond net payment, tax payments, and frozen funds from new stock listings on the Beijing Stock Exchange. Towards the end of November, the impact of government bond payments on the funding situation is expected to be low, but the impact of cross - quarter funding needs attention [7]. - Government Bond Net Financing: From November 17 to 23, 2025, the government bond net payment scale was about 41.057 billion yuan, a decrease of about 1.42 billion yuan compared to November 10 - 16. The net financing of treasury bonds was about 29.533 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds was about 11.524 billion yuan. From November 24 to 30, the government bond net payment scale is expected to be 23.38 billion yuan, with treasury bond net financing at about - 5.61 billion yuan and local government bond net financing at about 28.99 billion yuan [7]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - Yield Stability: As of November 21, 2025, the maturing yields of 1 - month and 3 - month ICDs were 1.4900% and 1.5735% respectively, down 0.5 and 0.2 basis points compared to November 14. The 1 - year ICD maturing yield remained unchanged at 1.6350% compared to November 14 [8]. - Net Financing: From November 17 to 23, 2025, the net financing of ICDs was about - 37.32 billion yuan, compared to about - 4.27 billion yuan in the week of November 10 - 16. Although the net financing was negative, the actual issuance scale was not low due to the high maturing scale. The estimated maturing repayment of ICDs from November 24 to 30 is 80.2 billion yuan, down from 90.7 billion yuan in the previous week, indicating a reduced pressure on roll - over [8]. 3. Institutional Behavior - Leverage Ratio in the Inter - bank Bond Market: From November 17 to 21, 2025, the estimated average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 107.15%, compared to 107.16% in the week of November 10 - 14. The estimated leverage ratios on November 21 and November 14 were about 107.31% and 107.15% respectively [9]. - Duration of Bond Funds: As of November 21, 2025, the estimated median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds was 4.23 years, down 0.60 years on a weekly basis, at the 79.8% percentile since early 2022. The estimated median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds was 1.63 years, down 0.20 years on a weekly basis, at the 30.0% percentile since early 2022 [9].