有色金属日报-20251124

Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased. The copper price has support below, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai copper contract today is 85,500 - 87,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M contract is 10,680 - 10,900 dollars/ton [4][5]. - Aluminum: Although the downstream is gradually entering the off - season, the overall global aluminum ingot inventory is low, and the aluminum price is still strongly supported. After the shock adjustment, the aluminum price may further strengthen. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai aluminum contract today is 21,300 - 21,600 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M contract is 2,770 - 2,830 dollars/ton [6][7]. - Lead: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and the lead price is still oscillating in a wide range. Recently, major global financial assets have shown weakness, and the lead price is expected to operate weakly in the short term [8][9]. - Zinc: The zinc industry is still in an over - supply cycle, and the structural risk has receded. Recently, major global financial assets have shown weakness, and the zinc price is expected to operate weakly in the short term [10][11]. - Tin: The short - term tin supply and demand are in a tight balance. Considering the inhibitory effect of high prices on tin consumption and the marginal alleviation of the shortage at the mine end, the tin price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 280,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and for the overseas LME tin is 36,000 - 38,000 dollars/ton [12][13]. - Nickel: The short - term pressure on the nickel fundamentals is obvious, and the price may continue to be under pressure. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish. Wait for the nickel iron price to stabilize before further observation. The short - term reference operating range for the Shanghai nickel price is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract is 13,500 - 15,500 dollars/ton [15][16][18]. - Lithium Carbonate: The short - term demand and inventory reduction have been well - priced. The current lithium price is at a high level this year. It is necessary to pay attention to potential disturbances such as supply release and slowdown in demand growth. The reference operating range for the main lithium carbonate contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange today is 88,800 - 94,600 yuan/ton [20][21]. - Alumina: The overseas ore price is expected to decline after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern at the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, but the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the follow - up production reduction expectation is strengthened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [23][24]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel market is still in an over - supply situation, demand is weak, and costs are moving down. The stainless - steel price is expected to continue the weak downward trend [26][27]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cost side of the cast aluminum alloy has strong price support, while the demand side performance is relatively average. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [29][30]. 3. Summary of Each Metal's Content Copper - Market Information: On Friday, the LME copper 3M contract rose 0.86% to 10,778 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 86,180 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 2,900 tons to 155,025 tons. The domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange weekly copper inventory slightly increased, and the daily warehouse receipts decreased by 0.5 to 50,000 tons. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 500 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference narrowed [4]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The Fed's attitude has turned dovish, and the probability of an interest - rate cut in December has rebounded. The copper raw material supply remains tight, and the downstream start - up rate is relatively strong. The copper price has strong support below and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [5]. Aluminum - Market Information: The aluminum price rebounded after a decline. On Friday, the LME aluminum slightly rose 0.05% to 2,808 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 21,390 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract position decreased by 42,000 to 612,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 69,000 tons. The domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories in three major regions decreased, and the aluminum rod processing fee increased. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 548,000 tons [6]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The global equity market correction and geopolitical tensions have made the market cautious. The overall global aluminum ingot inventory is relatively low, and there are supply disruption expectations. After the shock adjustment, the aluminum price may further strengthen [7]. Lead - Market Information: Last Friday, the Shanghai lead index fell 0.31% to 17,165 yuan/ton. The LME lead 3S fell 17.5 dollars to 1,997.5 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,075 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 30,000 tons, and the domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 36,400 tons [8]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply of lead ingots continues to increase, the domestic battery enterprise start - up rate remains stable, and the export of lead - acid batteries continues to decline. The lead price is expected to operate weakly in the short term [9]. Zinc - Market Information: Last Friday, the Shanghai zinc index rose 0.03% to 22,395 yuan/ton. The LME zinc 3S fell 0.5 dollars to 2,989.5 dollars/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,440 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 72,900 tons, and the domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 152,700 tons [10]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The zinc ore import decreased significantly in October, and the zinc ore supply is tight due to the winter stockpiling demand of smelters. But in the long run, the zinc industry is still in an over - supply cycle. The zinc price is expected to operate weakly in the short term [11]. Tin - Market Information: On November 21, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 291,310 yuan/ton, down 0.39%. The production of tin ingot smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi is generally stable at a high level, and the raw material supply is tight. In October, the import of tin concentrate increased slightly. The demand in emerging fields provides support for the tin price, and the start - up rate of tin solder enterprises has slightly recovered. The national main tin ingot social inventory increased by 311 tons to 8,245 tons [12]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The short - term tin supply and demand are in a tight balance. Considering the high - price inhibitory effect on consumption and the marginal alleviation of the mine - end shortage, the tin price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. Nickel - Market Information: Last week, the nickel price continued to fall. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 114,130 yuan/ton on Friday, a decline of 2.70%, and the LME nickel was quoted at 14,620 dollars/ton on Friday, a weekly decline of 1.75%. The nickel ore price was stable with a weak trend, and the nickel iron price continued to fall [15]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The short - term pressure on the nickel fundamentals is obvious. The supply of refined nickel raw materials is further supplemented, the market demand has no increase, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The nickel price may continue to be under pressure [16][18]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: On November 21, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index fell 6.87% to 92,211 yuan. The battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices both decreased significantly. The LC2601 contract closed at 91,020 yuan, down 8.04% [20]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The short - term demand and inventory reduction have been fully priced. The current lithium price is at a high level, and it is necessary to pay attention to potential disturbances such as supply release and slowdown in demand growth [21]. Alumina - Market Information: On November 21, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.65% to 2,737 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price was 2,775 yuan/ton, with a premium of 38 yuan/ton over the 12 - contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was 319 dollars/ton, and the import loss was 41 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 4,200 tons to 250,900 tons [23]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The overseas ore price is expected to decline after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern at the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, but the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the follow - up production reduction expectation is strengthened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,290 yuan/ton, up 0.04%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets were stable or slightly increased. The raw material prices such as nickel iron and scrap steel decreased. The futures inventory decreased by 1,726 tons to 70,365 tons, and the social inventory decreased to 1,071,700 tons [26]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The stainless - steel market is still in an over - supply situation, demand is weak, and costs are moving down. The stainless - steel price is expected to continue the weak downward trend [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: On Friday, the cast aluminum alloy price fell. The main AD2601 contract closed at 20,595 yuan/ton, down 0.89%. The weighted contract position decreased to 24,300 lots, and the trading volume increased. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price decreased by 150 yuan/ton. The domestic three - region aluminum alloy ingot inventory decreased by 300 tons to 50,600 tons [29]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The cost side of the cast aluminum alloy has strong price support, while the demand side performance is relatively average. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [30].