固定收益周报：短期不必过度悲观-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the continuous poor performance of stocks and bonds. The subsequent basic assumption is a fundamental combination of stable earnings, converging macro - liquidity, and declining risk appetite. The stock - bond ratio favors bonds, the equity style favors value, and the recommended allocation combination is long - term bonds plus value - type equity assets. This week, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (80% position) and the China Securities 1000 Index (20% position) are recommended [2][8]. - In the contraction cycle, the degree to which the stock - bond ratio favors equities is limited, and the probability of value style outperforming is higher. A + H dividend portfolios and A - share portfolios are recommended, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Asset Liability Sheet Analysis - Liability Side - In October 2025, the liability growth rate of the real sector was 8.6%, down from 8.9% previously, with a larger - than - expected decline. It is expected to decline slightly to around 8.5% in November and continue to decline, returning to a contraction phase. By the end of the year, it is expected to drop to around 8.4% [2][17]. - Last week, the financial sector's capital situation continued to converge marginally, but there were signs of a rebound in the second half of the week. The government's goal of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio remains unchanged, and China is still in a marginal contraction phase [2][17]. - In terms of fiscal policy, the net increase in government bonds last week was 2378 billion yuan (slightly higher than the planned 2283 billion yuan), and the planned net increase next week is 2480 billion yuan. The government liability growth rate at the end of October 2025 was 13.9%, down from 14.5% previously, and is expected to drop to around 13.0% in November and remain on a downward trend [3][18]. - In terms of monetary policy, the weekly average trading volume of funds decreased, the price increased, and the term spread slightly increased. The yield of one - year treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1.40% at the weekend. It is estimated that the lower limit of the one - year treasury bond yield is about 1.3%, with a central value around 1.4%. The term spread between ten - year and one - year treasury bonds slightly increased to 42 basis points. The future fluctuation ranges of ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond yields are expected to be around 1.6% - 1.9% and 1.8% - 2.3% respectively [3][18]. - Asset Side - In October, the physical quantity data continued to weaken compared to September. The Two Sessions set the target for the annual real economic growth rate in 2025 at around 5%, and the nominal economic growth rate target at around 4.9%. It remains to be seen whether a nominal economic growth rate of around 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the capital situation continued to converge, and both stocks and bonds underperformed for two consecutive weeks, exceeding expectations. The stock market was bearish, and the bond market was flat. The equity style continued to favor value. The stock - bond ratio favored bonds. The yield of ten - year treasury bonds remained stable at 1.82%, the yield of one - year treasury bonds decreased by 1 basis point to 1.40%, and the term spread slightly increased to 42 basis points. The yield of thirty - year treasury bonds increased by 1 basis point to 2.16%. The broad - based rotation strategy outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 1.46 pct last week [6][21]. - Since 2016, China has entered a marginal contraction phase of the national asset - liability sheet. The stock - bond ratio favors bonds. The bond allocation strategy is duration plus credit spread, and the stock allocation strategy is dividends plus growth [20]. - As of now, there have been two expansions of the real - sector balance sheet this year. The external environment's honeymoon period for China is over, and international funds will compare China and the US on a more equal footing. China's advantage lies in the real economy [7][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation - Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market declined with shrinking volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 5.1%, and the ChiNext Index fell 6.2%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, banking, media, food and beverage, national defense and military industry, and household appliances had the smallest declines, while power equipment, comprehensive, basic chemicals, commercial retail, and steel had the largest declines [29]. - Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of November 21, the top five crowded industries were electronics, power equipment, computer, basic chemicals, and machinery and equipment, while the bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, steel, coal, and social services. The top five industries with increased crowding this week were computer, media, national defense and military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and communication, while the top five with decreased crowding were power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, basic chemicals, non - ferrous metals, and commercial retail [31]. - This week, the average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market was 1.87 trillion yuan, down from 2.04 trillion yuan last week. The industries with the highest year - on - year growth in trading volume were national defense and military industry, computer, media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and real estate, while the industries with the smallest growth were power equipment, food and beverage, household appliances, environmental protection, and basic chemicals [33]. - Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, banking, food and beverage, media, national defense and military industry, and household appliances had the smallest declines in PE(TTM), while power equipment, comprehensive, basic chemicals, commercial retail, and steel had the largest declines. Industries with relatively high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banking, insurance, petroleum and petrochemicals, public utilities, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, auto parts, beauty care, new energy, and consumer electronics [36][37]. - Industry Prosperity - Externally, there was a marginal recovery. In October, the global manufacturing PMI rose from 50.7 to 50.8, and the PMIs of major economies showed mixed trends. The CCFI index rose 2.6% week - on - week in the latest week, and port cargo throughput declined. South Korea's export growth rate decreased to 3.6% in October and rose to 8.2% in the first 20 days of November. Vietnam's export growth rate slightly decreased from 25.3% in September to 18.2% in October [41]. - Domestically, second - hand housing prices fell in the latest week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The number of trucks passing through expressways increased. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries, which had been rising from May to August and falling from September to October, slightly increased in November but remained at a historically low level. Automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, new - home trading volume remained at a historically low level, and second - hand housing trading volume declined seasonally [41]. - Public Fund Market Review - In the third week of November (November 17 - 21), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of November 21, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 3.7 trillion yuan, slightly up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [59]. - Industry Recommendation - In the contraction cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to outperform. Dividend - type stocks should generally have three characteristics: no balance - sheet expansion, good earnings, and survival. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 13 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [65].