首席点评：短期调整不改慢牛趋势：申银万国期货研究所

Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - Short - term adjustments do not change the slow - bull trend of Chinese assets. Despite recent market corrections due to external factors, the "slow - bull" of Chinese assets is still expected under the support of domestic technology industries and "anti - involution" policies [1]. - In the economic situation with relatively large pressure, relevant incremental policies are still expected to be actively introduced, and the long - term and slow - paced bull market is likely to continue [2][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Chief Comment - Recent stock market corrections have led to a large amount of funds flowing into ETFs on the decline. From November 17th to 21st, the entire market's equity ETFs received a net inflow of over 70 billion yuan, with over 40 billion yuan flowing in on November 21st alone. External factors such as the decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the increasing concerns about the AI bubble are the main reasons for the market correction, but the "slow - bull" of Chinese assets remains promising [1]. 2. Key Varieties Index Futures - The three major US indices rebounded, while the index futures dropped significantly the previous trading day. The non - ferrous metals and power equipment sectors led the decline, with a market turnover of 1.98 trillion yuan. On November 20th, the margin trading balance decreased by 5.939 billion yuan to 2.474385 trillion yuan. The 15th Five - Year Plan still focuses on technological self - reliance, and the technology sector is expected to be the long - term direction. The "strong weights, weak growth" pattern since November is the result of short - term trading rhythms, event disturbances, and capital defense needs. If overseas technology performance materializes and small - cap stocks complete their supplementary declines, the market style may return to balance. However, before policy and liquidity signals become clearer, large - cap value stocks may still dominate in the short term. With the end of the year approaching, funds are more cautious, and the market style is more balanced compared to the third quarter [2][12]. Crude Oil - SC crude oil futures fell 1.46% at night. US trade sanctions on Russian oil companies and Lukoil will take effect on Friday, and Lukoil must sell its large international asset portfolio by December 13th. Ukrainian President Zelensky has received a peace plan draft for the Russia - Ukraine conflict from the US and is expected to discuss it with President Trump. The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed a split among policymakers on the interest - rate cut last month. Despite warnings about inflation, they still decided to cut rates. The overall downward trend is hard to reverse [4][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke futures showed a volatile trend on the night of last Friday, and the coking coal positions continued to decline. Last week, the output of refined coal from sample mines was basically flat, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume rebounded rapidly, exceeding last year's level. The supply side has recovered. The demand side showed that the output of the five major steel products increased last week, mainly contributed by building materials. The overall inventory decreased significantly, with the largest de - stocking in rebar. The overall apparent demand improved. However, the expectation of a decline in hot metal production still exists, and the short - term futures price is expected to correct. Attention should be paid to the changes in coking coal supply, steel de - stocking speed, and hot metal production trends [3][22]. 3. Daily News International News - The 20th G20 Leaders' Summit closed in Johannesburg, South Africa. South African President Ramaphosa thanked all parties for their support during South Africa's presidency of the G20 and emphasized that the summit successfully adopted the Leaders' Declaration, reflecting the G20's determination to maintain multilateral cooperation and promote common development in difficult global situations [7]. Domestic News - Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Johannesburg. Li Qiang pointed out that developing a stable, sustainable, and high - quality comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Germany is in the fundamental interests of the two peoples. The two countries are important economic and trade partners, and the two governments should strengthen dialogue and communication to properly handle concerns. He hopes that Germany will adopt a rational and pragmatic policy towards China [8]. Industry News - Zhang Yuzhuo, Secretary of the Party Committee and Director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, visited the headquarters of three central enterprises in Xiongan New Area. He said that the SASAC will support enterprises to stay, stabilize, and develop well in Xiongan. Enterprises should focus on their main responsibilities and businesses, strengthen innovation - driven development, and contribute to the high - standard and high - quality construction of Xiongan [9]. 4. Overseas Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 rose 0.98% from 6,538.76 on November 20th to 6,602.99 on November 21st. The European STOXX 50 fell 0.40%, the FTSE China A50 futures dropped 2.66%, the US dollar index declined 0.07%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.08%, London gold spot decreased 0.30%, London silver dropped 1.29%, LME aluminum rose 0.05%, LME nickel increased 1.14%, ICE No. 11 sugar rose 0.61%, ICE No. 2 cotton increased 0.24%, CBOT soybean meal rose 0.66%, CBOT soybean oil fell 0.90%, CBOT wheat rose 0.18%, CBOT corn remained unchanged, LME zinc fell 0.38%, and CBOT soybeans rose 0.31% [11]. 5. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - Index Futures: Similar to the key varieties analysis, the long - term slow - bull trend is expected to continue [12]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds fell slightly, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond rose to 1.812%. The central bank increased open - market operations this week, with a net injection of 43.4 billion yuan, an 800 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation, and an additional roll - over of 500 billion yuan. The Shibor short - term varieties declined, and the market liquidity eased. The US government ended the "shutdown", and the Fed's decision - makers were divided on the interest - rate cut in October. The current economic fundamentals are weak, and the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which is expected to support the treasury bond futures price. The main contract has shifted to the March 2026 contract [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The downward trend is hard to reverse due to sanctions, peace - plan news, and Fed's interest - rate cut decisions [15]. - Methanol: Methanol futures rose 0.5% at night. The average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants increased, while the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants decreased slightly. The coastal methanol inventory decreased, but the expected import volume is large. Short - term methanol is expected to be weak [16]. - Rubber: Overseas rubber supply is increasing, while domestic supply will decrease as the domestic production area enters the off - season. The demand support is limited. The short - term price is expected to correct [17]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefin futures are at a low level. The downstream demand is stable, but the market sentiment is affected by crude oil and the overall commodity weakness. The short - term valuation is low, and it is expected to continue the low - level oscillation [18]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass futures hit a low, with an increase in the inventory of glass production enterprises last week. Soda ash futures oscillated at a low level, with a decrease in the inventory of soda ash production enterprises. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and the market is cautious. The short - term glass supply adjustment needs time, and the soda ash supply - demand digestion pressure increases [19]. Metals - Copper: Copper prices rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output is growing. The demand in different sectors varies, and the Indonesian mine accident may lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, supporting copper prices in the long term [20]. - Zinc: Zinc prices fell at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the smelting output continued to grow. The demand in different sectors is mixed, and the zinc supply - demand difference is not obvious, with the price likely to fluctuate within a range [21]. Black Metals - Coking Coal and Coke: Similar to the key varieties analysis, the short - term price is expected to correct [3][22]. Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: Bean meal futures declined at night, while rapeseed meal was relatively strong. The USDA's supply - demand report showed a decrease in US soybean production and inventory, but the market expected more. The domestic bean meal supply is loose, and it is expected to adjust following the US soybean market [23]. - Oils and Fats: Rapeseed oil rose at night, while soybean and palm oils were weak. The MPOB report showed an increase in Malaysian palm oil production and exports, but the inventory continued to rise. The supply of rapeseed raw materials is increasing, and the bio - diesel demand is expected to weaken. The short - term oils and fats are expected to be weak [24]. - Sugar: Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to decline. The global sugar market is in a stocking phase, and the Brazilian sugar production is high. The domestic market follows the international trend, but the cost of the new domestic sugar - pressing season may support the price. The short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak [26]. - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton futures were weak within a range. The Xinjiang cotton picking is almost over, and the market focus has returned to the supply - demand fundamentals. The downstream demand is weak, and the short - term price is expected to be weak [27]. Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The EC index fell 3.2% last Friday. The SCFI European line rate decreased, and the price cut by Maersk indicates that the price - support expectation in mid - November was false. Although there is an expectation of pre - Spring Festival rush in December and January, the current shipping companies' capacity control is limited, and the 02 - contract value is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to the follow - up price cuts of the OA Alliance [28].