降息博弈加剧，锌价震荡为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures first declined and then rebounded. The Fed is divided on a December rate cut, increasing the market's risk aversion. Fundamentals are relatively balanced, with reduced concerns about LME squeezes. Domestic smelters are planning more production cuts due to falling processing fees, but new projects in Xinjiang are ramping up. Demand is in the off - season, with slow destocking in China. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely at low levels, and in the long - term, zinc ingot surpluses may increase, keeping prices under pressure [3][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - From November 14th to 21st, SHFE zinc decreased from 22,425 yuan/ton to 22,395 yuan/ton, a drop of 30 yuan/ton; LME zinc decreased from 3014.5 dollars/ton to 2992 dollars/ton, a drop of 22.5 dollars/ton. The SHFE - LME ratio increased from 7.44 to 7.48. SHFE inventory decreased by 545 tons to 100347 tons, LME inventory increased by 8350 tons to 47,325 tons, and social inventory decreased by 0.52 million tons to 15.27 million tons. The spot premium increased from - 40 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc switched to ZN2601, with prices first falling and then rebounding. As the Fed's December rate - cut expectation declined, the US dollar held above 100, pressuring risk assets. With the slow increase in LME inventory, concerns about squeezes eased. After the price decline, downstream point - pricing increased, and the price found support near the 40 - day moving average and rebounded weakly, closing at 22390 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.16%. LME zinc stabilized after a high - level decline, with the 60 - day moving average providing support, closing at 2992 dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 0.75% [5]. - In the spot market, at the beginning of the week, the market supply was tight, and traders raised prices, with the spot premium rising. As pre - sold goods and factory shipments arrived, the market supply increased, and the spot premium declined. As of November 21st, LME zinc inventory was 47,325 tons, a weekly increase of 8350 tons; SHFE inventory was 100347 tons, a decrease of 545 tons from the previous week. As of November 20th, social inventory was 15.27 million tons, a decrease of 0.39 million tons from Monday and 0.52 million tons from last Thursday. Shanghai's inventory increased slightly due to some smelters resuming production, while Guangdong and Tianjin's inventories decreased due to downstream restocking after the price decline [6]. 3.3 Industry News - As of November 21st, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 250 yuan/metal ton to 2350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 10.45 dollars/dry ton to 73.05 dollars/dry ton [11]. - In October, zinc ore imports were 34.09 million metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.56% and a year - on - year increase of 2.97%. Refined zinc imports were 1.88 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 67.39%. Refined zinc exports were 8519 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6041 tons. Galvanized sheet exports were 129.94 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.97%. Die - cast zinc alloy exports were 268.71 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 58.67% [11]. - As of the end of October, the Zhugongtang lead - zinc mine's mining and beneficiation project had completed an investment of 555 million yuan in 2025, with smooth infrastructure progress. The beneficiation plant is expected to complete a trial run by the end of December, and the tailings pond will start trial operation. The underground equipment is expected to start a trial run in June 2026 [11]. - Xinjiang Baochen Supply Chain Co., Ltd. is selling zinc ingots on behalf of Xinjiang Kunlun Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. through online reverse bidding, including 3000 tons of 1 zinc ingots and 7000 tons of 0 zinc ingots [12].