豆粕周报：供应较为宽松，连粕高位回落-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT soybean January contract rose 4 to close at 1126.5 cents per bushel, a 0.36% increase; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 80 to close at 3012 yuan per ton, a 2.59% decrease; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 50 to 2990 yuan per ton, a 1.64% decrease; the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 59 to 2431 yuan per ton, a 2.37% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 80 to 2510 yuan per ton, a 3.09% decrease [4][7]. - The higher - than - expected soybean crushing volume in the US in October and optimistic export expectations led to a significant strengthening of the outer market at the beginning of the week. As private exporters reported continuous purchases of US soybeans by China, with a cumulative purchase volume of 1.584 million tons during the week, the export expectations were fulfilled and US soybeans declined. The import cost dropped, the spot supply was sufficient, the previously worried about long - term supply gap was filled, downstream buyers purchased a large number of long - term basis contracts, and the Dalian soybean meal futures prices declined from high levels. Rapeseed meal is in the off - season of seasonal demand and declined during the week [4][7]. - Precipitation increased in the central and western regions of Brazil, which was beneficial for improving soil moisture; the Argentine产区 was relatively dry, which was conducive to sowing progress and the soil moisture was acceptable. Positive expectations for South American crop yields were maintained. Last week, private exporters reported a total of 1.584 million tons of US soybean exports to China, effectively supplementing the domestic soybean supply for the December - January shipping period. The trading volume of long - term basis contracts increased. With lower costs, sufficient spot supply, and alleviated concerns about long - term supply, soybean meal prices declined from high levels. It is expected that the Dalian soybean meal futures will fluctuate weakly in the short term [4][12]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean price rose 4 to 1126.5 cents per bushel, a 0.36% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans fell 10 to 491 dollars per ton, a 2.00% decrease; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans fell 3 to 497 dollars per ton, a 0.60% decrease; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market increased 204.75 to 47.01 yuan per ton; the DCE soybean meal 01 contract fell 80 to 3012 yuan per ton, a 2.59% decrease; the CZCE rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 59 to 2431 yuan per ton, a 2.37% decrease; the soybean meal - rapeseed meal price difference decreased 21 to 581 yuan per ton; the East China soybean meal spot price fell 40 to 3000 yuan per ton, a 1.32% decrease; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 50 to 2990 yuan per ton, a 1.64% decrease; the South China spot - futures price difference increased 30 to - 22 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - US Market: The US soybean harvest rate as of November 16, 2025, was 95%, compared with 98% last year and a five - year average of 96%. Private exporters reported 1.584 million tons of US soybean exports to China for the 2025/2026 market year. The net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 year as of October 2 was 919,400 tons, in line with expectations. The US soybean crushing gross profit in the week of November 14, 2025, was 2.81 dollars per bushel, up from 2.02 dollars per bushel the previous week. The 48% protein soybean meal spot price in Illinois was 338.4 dollars per short ton, up from 322.08 dollars per short ton the previous week. The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 51.58 cents per pound, up from 48.02 cents per pound the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 11.15 dollars per bushel, up from 11.14 dollars per bushel the previous week. In October, the US soybean crushing volume was 227.647 million bushels, a 15.1% increase from September and a 13.9% increase from October 2024, also breaking the monthly crushing record set in December 2024. As of October 31, the NOPA member companies' soybean oil inventory rose to 1.305 billion pounds, a 5.0% increase from the end of September and a 21.5% increase from the same period last year [8][9]. - South American Market: As of November 15, 2025, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 69% (Conab data), and 71% (AgRural data), but lagging behind last year's 80% due to irregular rainfall. Brazil is expected to export 4.71 million tons of soybeans in November, up from 4.26 million tons the previous week. As of November 19, 2025, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 24.6%. In the next 15 days, precipitation in the Brazilian soybean - producing areas will be slightly lower than normal, but the increase in precipitation in the central and western regions is beneficial for soil moisture; precipitation in Argentina will decrease in the next two weeks, which is conducive to sowing progress and the soil moisture is sufficient [10]. - Domestic Market: As of November 14, 2025, the major oil mills' soybean inventory was 7.4771 million tons, a decrease of 142,400 tons from the previous week but an increase of 2.1711 million tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 992,900 tons, a decrease of 5700 tons from the previous week but an increase of 214,300 tons from the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 5.3507 million tons, a decrease of 650,800 tons from the previous week but an increase of 965,400 tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 9.926 million tons, a decrease of 408,000 tons from the previous week but an increase of 3.0947 million tons from the same period last year. As of November 21, 2025, the national daily average trading volume of soybean meal was 242,600 tons, including 70,960 tons of spot trading and 171,640 tons of forward trading, compared with a daily average total trading volume of 222,860 tons the previous week; the daily average soybean meal pickup volume was 190,360 tons, up from 183,700 tons the previous week; the major oil mills' crushing volume was 2.3344 million tons, up from 2.0776 million tons the previous week; the soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises were 7.98 days, up from 7.74 days the previous week [11]. Industry News - Secex reported that Brazil exported 2.3021241 million tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of November, with a daily average export volume of 230,212.4 tons, a 71% increase from the daily average export volume in November last year. The total export volume in November last year was 2.5530339 million tons [13]. - The Brazilian Soybean Industry Association (Abiove) predicted that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/2026 season would be a record - high 177.7 million tons (previously estimated at 178.5 million tons), higher than 172.1 million tons in the previous year. The soybean crushing volume in the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 60.5 million tons, the same as the previous estimate and higher than 58.5 million tons in the previous year. The Brazilian soybean export volume in 2026 is expected to reach 111 million tons, the same as the previous estimate and higher than 109 million tons in 2025 [13]. - As of November 17, the soybean sowing rate in Paraná state was 92%, up 6 percentage points from the previous week but lower than 96% last year. The growth of soybeans improved slightly, with 92% of the evaluated areas in good condition. According to the latest estimate, the soybean harvest in Paraná state in the 2025/2026 season is estimated to be 21.96 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year [14]. - As of November 16, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/2026 year were 1.08 million tons, compared with 1.32 million tons last year; soybean imports were 4.4 million tons, compared with 5.25 million tons last year; soybean meal imports were 6.74 million tons, compared with 7.37 million tons last year; rapeseed imports were 1.4 million tons, compared with 2.44 million tons last year [14]. - S&P Global Energy predicted that the US corn planting area in 2026 would be reduced by 3.8% compared with 2025 to 95 million acres, a decrease of 3.7 million acres; the soybean planting area would be increased by 4% to 84.5 million acres, an increase of 3.4 million acres [15]. - Safras& Mercado estimated that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/2026 season would be 178.76 million tons, a reduction of more than 2 million tons from the September forecast. The soybean production is still expected to reach a record high, a 4% increase from the previous year. In Tocantins state, the yield potential decreased from 3800 kg/ha to 3660 kg/ha, with an expected output of about 5.7 million tons. In Paraná state, due to adverse weather conditions such as tornadoes, the production estimate was adjusted to 21.7 million tons, still higher than the previous year. The soybean planting area is expected to increase by 1.4% to 48.31 million hectares [15]. - As of November 12, Argentine farmers sold 533,500 tons of 2024/2025 season soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales volume to 39.3662 million tons [16]. - The soybean planting in Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil, "steadily" advanced last week, reaching 43% of the estimated planting area, but still lagging behind last year and the five - year average [16]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts on the trends of US soybean futures contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival prices, RMB spot exchange rates, regional soybean crushing profits, management fund CBOT net positions, regional soybean meal spot prices, soybean meal spot - futures price differences, soybean meal 1 - 5 month spread, South American soybean产区 precipitation and temperature, Brazilian and Argentine soybean sowing progress, US soybean sales and export volume, US oil mill crushing profits, soybean meal trading and pickup volume, port and oil mill soybean inventory, oil mill crushing volume, unexecuted contracts, oil mill soybean meal inventory, and feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days [17 - 47].