金信期货日刊-20251124

Group 1: Overall Conclusion - The core pattern of loose supply and demand in the pulp market remains unchanged. Short - term factors such as pulp mill shutdowns and packaging paper price increases provide slight support for prices, but weak cultural paper demand and continuous port inventory accumulation limit the upside space. The pulp futures 01 contract already has delivery profits, and further upside is limited. It is likely to show a volatile trend subsequently [6]. - The supply - demand imbalance in the double - offset paper market persists. Although paper enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices in the short term, weak demand cannot support a significant price increase. Coupled with the poor transmission of rising wood pulp costs, double - offset paper futures are likely to maintain a weak range - bound oscillation. Attention should be paid to the impact of the concentrated release of publishing tenders on the market [17]. Group 2: Pulp Demand - There is a continuous structural differentiation in demand. The price increase of white cardboard has been successfully implemented, and leading packaging paper enterprises are driving a price increase wave. The average prices of corrugated paper and boxboard paper have both increased by 80 yuan/ton week - on - week. However, the demand for cultural paper remains weak. Even though double - offset paper plans to raise prices, due to lack of demand support, downstream acceptance is low, and overall demand has not fully expanded [5]. Supply - Supply is generally loose with short - term disturbances. China's pulp production increased by 10.2% month - on - month in October, providing a solid supply foundation. The FOB price of Chilean softwood pulp decreased while that of hardwood pulp increased. However, the temporary shutdown of the US Magnolia pulp mill since November 20 has brought short - term minor disturbances to global supply, but it is difficult to change the overall loose pattern [5]. Inventory - Pulp inventory continues to accumulate at a high level. As of November 20, the inventory of pulp samples at major domestic ports reached 2.173 million tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.0% week - on - week increase. Only a few ports such as Changshu Port showed a narrow - range destocking trend, while Qingdao Port continued to accumulate inventory significantly. The overall inventory is at a medium level for the year [5]. Profit - There is a differentiation in paper enterprises' profits. Packaging paper enterprises' profits are clearly recovering due to product price increases and smooth cost transmission of steadily rising pulp costs. However, enterprises relying on cultural paper are still under pressure. The inventory of products such as double - offset paper is high, price increases are difficult to implement, and cost pressure is difficult to transfer, resulting in low gross margins [5]. Group 3: Double - Offset Paper Demand - Demand is mainly based on rigid needs with limited support. Publishing tenders are progressing, but local tender prices are low, having little impact on market prices. Social orders have not improved significantly. Downstream printing factories purchase as needed, and dealers mainly digest previous inventories. There is insufficient follow - up for new orders of double - offset paper, and overall demand has not increased [16]. Supply - Supply is abundant with a slight easing of pressure. This week, the operating load rate of double - offset paper decreased slightly by 0.33 percentage points to 52.20%. Although some production lines in Jiangsu are under maintenance and some small and medium - sized factories in Shandong are operating below capacity, most large - scale paper enterprises are producing as planned, and new production capacity in South China is continuously increasing, so the overall supply remains abundant [16]. Inventory - Inventory shows an accumulation trend. This week, the inventory days of double - offset paper increased by 0.54% week - on - week. Due to low downstream purchasing enthusiasm and limited new orders, the paper mills' shipping rhythm has slowed down, and inventory is under pressure, remaining at a relatively high level [16]. Profit - Losses continue to expand, and paper enterprises face significant profit pressure. On the one hand, rising wood pulp prices have increased raw material costs. On the other hand, although some paper enterprises plan to raise the price of double - offset paper by 200 yuan/ton, due to weak demand, the price increase is difficult to be accepted by downstream customers, and costs cannot be transferred smoothly [16]. Group 4: Waste Paper Demand - Rigid demand provides support, but the intensity is weakening. E - commerce inventory replenishment still supports packaging paper orders, driving paper mills' rigid demand for waste paper replenishment. However, the overall demand release is weaker than before. The sales of waste - paper - based products such as corrugated paper and boxboard paper have decreased by 10.8% and 17.9% respectively, and the purchase prices of waste paper in some regional paper mills have been adjusted downward, resulting in light trading [26]. Supply - There is a regional differentiation in supply, and the overall tightness has eased. The arrival of waste paper in East and North China has increased significantly, improving the shortage of circulating supplies. However, the supply in South China remains tight. The waste paper prices across the country show a mixed trend. For example, Shandong Tai'an Taihe Gypsum Paper Industry has raised prices by 40 - 90 yuan/ton, while many paper enterprises in Guizhou have lowered prices by 10 - 30 yuan/ton, reflecting the regional imbalance on the supply side [26]. Inventory - There is a structural differentiation in inventory. At the paper mill end, the inventories of waste - paper - based base papers such as corrugated paper and boxboard paper are decreasing, with a month - on - month decline of 1.0% - 1.1%. However, the waste - paper recycling end is under great pressure. The previous downward fluctuation of waste paper prices has led to inventory backlogs in many packing stations, with some packing stations having inventories of nearly 500 tons and significant destocking pressure [26]. Profit - There is an obvious differentiation in industry profits. The profits of waste - paper - based paper enterprises have been repaired. The price increase of base papers such as boxboard paper and corrugated paper is higher than the increase in waste paper costs, and the corresponding gross profit margins have increased by 7.2% and 10.8% respectively. However, waste - paper recycling enterprises are deeply in losses. Some packing stations bought waste paper at high prices before, and the current selling price is below the cost line, with a loss of more than 400 yuan per ton. Small and medium - sized recyclers face great profit pressure [27]. Group 5: Packaging Paper (Boxboard Paper) Demand - There is still demand for inventory replenishment, but its release is weak. The replenishment demand after e - commerce promotions still supports orders to some extent. However, the overall demand is weaker than before. This week, the sales volume of boxboard paper reached 639,000 tons, a 17.9% week - on - week decrease. The trading in some regional paper mills is light, and purchase prices have been adjusted downward [37]. Supply - The supply contraction is obvious. This week, the capacity utilization rate of boxboard paper has dropped to 67.5%, a 3.3% week - on - week decrease, and the output has also decreased to 631,000 tons. Leading paper enterprises such as Nine Dragons and Shanying are implementing shutdown and maintenance plans, which not only reduce short - term supply but also accelerate the clearance of inefficient production capacity. At the same time, changes in the recycled pulp import policy further reduce supply, jointly supporting the price increase of boxboard paper [37]. Inventory - The low - level destocking trend continues. The boxboard paper inventory at the paper mill end has decreased by 1.0% week - on - week, and the overall inventory is at a low level. This inventory contraction not only reduces market supply pressure but also provides strong support for boxboard paper price increases, driving the market to operate steadily and slightly strongly [37]. Profit - The profit repair is significant. This week, the price of boxboard paper has increased with the industry - wide price increase wave, and the price increase is higher than the increase in raw material costs such as waste paper, driving the gross profit margin to increase by 7.2%. Leading enterprises, with their advantages in the whole industrial chain layout and pricing power, have more prominent profit repair during the price increase wave, further widening the profit gap [37].