格林大华期货早盘提示：国债-20251124

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial (treasury bond) sector is "oscillation" for TL, T, TF, and TS [1]. 2. Core View of the Report - The latest macro - economic data shows that stabilizing growth remains the main line of the fourth - quarter macro - economy. Treasury futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, the main contracts of treasury futures mostly opened higher, declined in the morning session, and fluctuated horizontally in the afternoon. By the close, the 30 - year main contract TL2512 fell 0.31%, the 10 - year T2512 fell 0.04%, the 5 - year TF2512 fell 0.06%, and the 2 - year TS2512 remained flat [1]. Important Information - Open Market: On Friday, the central bank conducted 375 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 212.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 162.2 billion yuan [1]. - Funds Market: On Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market dropped to a recent low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32% (previous trading day: 1.37%), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.44% (previous trading day: 1.49%) [1]. - Cash Bond Market: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly edged up slightly compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year yield rose 0.12 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year rose 0.55 BP to 1.59%, the 10 - year rose 0.31 BP to 1.82%, and the 30 - year rose 0.45 BP to 2.16% [1]. - Commerce Data: From January to October, the national foreign investment absorption was 621.93 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% [1]. - Fed Expectations: According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 71%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 29%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 58%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 20%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 22% [1]. - Fed Official Statement: On November 21st evening, Fed's "third - in - command" Williams sent a dovish signal, saying that as the labor market cools, the Fed still has room to further cut interest rates in the near term to adjust the policy stance closer to a neutral level, which led to increased bets on a December rate cut [1]. - US PMI Data: The preliminary US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in November was 51.9 (expected 52, previous 52.5), the Services PMI was 55 (expected 54.6, previous 54.8), and the Composite PMI was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, indicating that the US business activity expansion rate reached the fastest in four months, with service growth accelerating and manufacturing growth slowing [1]. - Eurozone PMI Data: The preliminary Eurozone Composite PMI in November was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The Services PMI was 53.1, better than the previous and expected values, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half, while the Manufacturing PMI was 49.7, falling below the boom - bust line. Analysts believe that although manufacturing is dragging down growth, the high weight of services in the overall economy means that the Eurozone's growth in the fourth quarter should be faster than in the third quarter [2]. Market Logic - The unemployment rates of 16 - 24 and 25 - 29 age groups (excluding students) in October were 17.3% and 7.2% respectively, higher than the same period last year, indicating that efforts to stabilize growth and employment are still needed. South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of November increased 8.2% year - on - year, and its imports from China increased 5.6%, suggesting good export prospects for China in November. The wholesale prices of agricultural products fluctuated narrowly in mid - November, and the Nanhua Industrial Products Index declined slightly, with the overall domestic inflation remaining moderate. The year - on - year decline in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities widened in mid - November, and housing prices continued to decline. The latest macro - economic data shows that stabilizing growth is the main line of the fourth - quarter macro - economy. On Friday, the Wind All - A Index opened lower and closed with a medium - sized negative line, down 3.17% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.98 trillion yuan, up from 1.72 trillion yuan in the previous trading day. Treasury futures mostly closed down on Friday, with only the 2 - year contract remaining flat, not showing strength despite the sharp decline in the stock market [2]. Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band trading [2]