纯碱周报：纯碱供需双弱，趋势未改-20251124

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the soda ash market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand, with the price center moving further down. Although there were production cuts in some enterprises on the supply side, the high inventory pressure was not substantially relieved, continuously suppressing market sentiment. On the demand side, the light soda ash market improved slightly, but the demand for heavy soda ash remained weak. The continuous weakness of the downstream float glass market also dragged down the soda ash price. The cost - end support and the loose supply - demand pattern formed a game. Overall, the soda ash market was operating weakly, but the further downward space might be limited due to cost support [9][39] Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of November 20, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 720,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18,500 tons, a decline of 2.50%. Among them, the production of light soda ash was 324,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,700 tons; the production of heavy soda ash was 396,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,700 tons [10] - The weekly comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 82.68%, the previous value was 84.80%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.12%. Among them, the ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 89.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%; the co - production capacity utilization rate was 69.51%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.58%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons and above was 89.41%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08% [12] (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of November 20, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6444 million tons, a decrease of 7,300 tons from the previous Monday, a decline of 0.44%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 757,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,800 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 887,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons. Compared with a week ago, it decreased by 62,900 tons, a decline of 3.68%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 757,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43,100 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 887,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,800 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.6481 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3,700 tons, a decline of 0.23% [15] (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - On November 20, it was reported that the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 783,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.03%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 108.73%, a month - on - month increase of 7.79 percentage points. During the week, the production cuts of soda ash enterprises increased, the supply showed a downward trend, and supported by the pending orders, the enterprises shipped well, the inventory of individual enterprises decreased, and the overall shipment rate increased [17] (4) Profit Analysis - As of November 20, 2025, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of Chinese soda ash by the combined - soda process was - 153.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 28.50 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw - material mine salt fluctuated downward, the price of steam coal increased slightly, the cost - end prices rose and fell, and the comprehensive cost decreased slightly; while the price of light soda ash increased, so the double - ton profit of the combined - soda process eased slightly but remained at a low level [20] - As of November 20, 2025, the theoretical profit of Chinese soda ash by the ammonia - soda process was - 38.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of sea salt on the cost side increased slightly, the price of anthracite remained stable, and the cost side increased slightly; the soda ash price was stable and firm without obvious adjustment, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process showed a downward trend [24] 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Float Glass Industry Production Increased Month - on - Month - As of November 20, 2025, the daily production of national float glass was 158,100 tons, a decrease of 0.66% compared with the 13th. The weekly (November 14 - 20, 2025) production of national float glass was 1.1102 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.34% and a year - on - year increase of 0.08% [29] (2) Float Glass Industry Inventory Decreased - As of November 20, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.303 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 56,000 weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 0.09% and a year - on - year increase of 30.72%. The converted inventory days were 27.7 days, an increase of 0.2 days compared with the previous period [33] 3. Comprehensive Analysis - The soda ash market was in a weak supply - demand pattern last week, with the price center moving further down. The high inventory pressure on the supply side was not relieved, and the demand for heavy soda ash was weak. The cost - end support and the loose supply - demand pattern formed a game. The market was operating weakly, but the further downward space might be limited [9][39] 4. Operation Suggestions - Unilateral: Short - term shock is weak, but excessive short - chasing is not advisable - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Choose the right time to use the covered - call strategy to increase returns [40]